Monday, January 28, 2013
28 January 2013
Elijah Wood b. 1981
Ty Olsson b. 1974
1993: Two connected computers, sharing one memory that communicates with both systems, will have the capability of defeating the human world champion at chess.
Predictor: OMNI Future Almanac in 1982
Reality: I love how specific the Future Almanac gets. This is from a list of projected computer milestones from 1990-2010.
They were a few years early and several computers short. World Champion Garry Kasparov beat the IBM computer Deep Blue in 1996, but the reprogrammed and redesigned computer won the rematch the next year with 2 wins, 1 loss and 3 draws in a six game match.
Having two computers sharing one memory is called parallel processing. Deep Blue was an example of massive parallel processing, with a total of 30 main general purpose microprocessors, each with 16 extra chips specifically designed to analyze positions on the chess board. This was great publicity for massive parallel processing, a method that sounds cool to the "bigger is better" part of our human brains, but one that doesn't always produce the optimal results in terms of speed and computing power when compared with other supercomputers.
If I was giving out grades, Deep Blue obviously gets an A and I'll give the prediction a B+ for getting the decade right and the detail that parallel processing would be used. I give Garry Kasparov full marks for sportsmanship for giving the computer a second chance, which is a better grade than IBM gets, since they dismantled Deep Blue after the 1997 victory, robbing Kasparov of a chance for vindication.
Looking one day... INTO THE FUTURE! Robert A. Heinlein gets on the moving sidewalk bandwagon.
Wait, is it a moving sidewalk or is it a bandwagon? Oh, you know what I mean.
Join me then... IN THE FUTURE!