13 June 2014

Birthdays
Kodi Smit-McPhee b. 1996 (Let Me In, The Road, Nightmares & Dreamscapes)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson b. 1990 (Avengers: Age of Ultron, Godzilla, Kick-Ass, The Illusionist)
Kat Dennings b. 1986 (Suburban Gothic, Thor)
Chris Evans b. 1981 (Captain America, Fantastic Four, Avengers)
Ethan Embry b. 1978 (Once Upon a Time, The Witches of Oz, Timeline, FreakyLinks, Evolver)
Lisa Vidal b. 1965 (Grimm, American Horror Story, The Event, Star Trek [2009])
Ally Sheedy b. 1962 (Kyle XY, Stephen King’s Dead Zone, Strange Frequency, Short Circuit, WarGames)
Tim Allen b. 1953 (Zoom, Galaxy Quest)
Richard Thomas b. 1951 (Nightmares & Dreamscapes, The Invaders [1995 TV], It, Battle Beyond the Stars)
Stellan Skarsgård b. 1951 (Thor, The Avengers, Pirates of the Caribbean, Exorcist: The Beginning, King Arthur [2004], Deep Blue Sea)
Belinda Bauer b. 1950 (Necromicon: Book of Dead, RoboCop 2, Timerider: The Adventure of Lyle Swann, The Archer: Fugitive from the Empire)
Simon Callow b. 1949 (Outlander [TV], Doctor Who, Chemical Wedding)
Joe Roth b. 1948 (producer, Maleficent, Oz the Great and Powerful, Snow White and the Huntsman, Alice in Wonderland [2010], Tall Tale)
Whitley Strieber b. 1945 (author, Hunger, The Wolfen, War Day, Communion)
Malcolm MacDowell b. 1943 (Zombex, Vamps, The Philadephia Experiment [TV], Antiviral, The Book of Eli, Halloween I & II [21st Century], Suck, Heroes, Doomsday, Firestarter II; Rekindled, Island of the Dead, Star Trek: Generations, Lexx, 2103: The Deadly Wake, Tank Girl, Class of 1999, Moon 44, Cat People, Time After Time, A Clockwork Orange)
Ralph McQuarrie b. 1929 died 3 March 2012 (production designer, Star Wars, Battlestar Galactica, E.T., Coccoon, Star Trek)
Paul Lynde b. 1926 died 10 January 1982 (Bewitched, I Dream of Jeannie, The Munsters, Son of Flubber)
Rex Everhart b. 1920 died 13 March 2000 (Superman [1978], ‘Way Out)
Mary Wickes b. 1919 died 22 October 1995 (Tabitha, Kolchak: The Night Stalker, Sigmund and the Sea Monsters)
Larry Keating b. 1896 died 26 August 1963 (The Incredible Mr. Limpet, When Worlds Collide)
Basil Rathbone b. 1892 died 21 July 1967 (Queen of Blood, Voyage to the Prehistoric Planet, The Magic Sword)

Last year, before I had done the level of research I do now, Kat Dennings was in the Picture Slot. She's purdy. But if it's iconic we are going for, Malcolm MacDowell in A Clockwork Orange is hard to beat. Also, this is as good a time as any to admit how much fun doing the research can be. Today, there were so many great memories found among these names. From youngest to oldest, here are the highlights.

1. I don't love Tim Allen, but I do love Galaxy Quest.
2. I love Simon Callow.
3. I love Malcolm MacDowell.
4. The artwork of Ralph McQuarrie is the front runner for the Picture Slot next year. Great stuff.
5. Paul Lynde! Scrolling through his credits, just seeing That Girl made me think of his delivery of the line "Body heat." It still makes me laugh. (I have no idea how many people remember this.)
6. Mary Wickes. With Bea Arthur and Eve Arden, the holy trinity of wise cracking dames in American film history. The Man Who Came to Dinner, The Music Man, Sister Act. I love Mary Wickes.
7. Basil Rathbone. No further comment required.

No disrespect to anyone else on the list. Rex Everhart and Larry Keating were great Oh That Guys, I've enjoyed work by Ally Sheedy, Richard Thomas and Stellan Skarsgård, but the seven listed were really nice trips down memory lane this morning.

Many happy returns to the living on the list and to the dead, thanks for all the memories.

Movies released
The Incredible Hulk released, 2008

Predictor: Dr. Paul Ehrlich, quoted in 1971

Prediction: "By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people ... If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000."

Reality: A lot of Ehrlich's scorn is aimed at darker skinned foreigners, notably the countries of India and Egypt, but this quote lifts him from the ranks of crypto-racists to the category of dense pessimistic scumbags.

The U.K.s growth rate from 1970 to 2000 was next to nothing, climbing from about 56 million to about 59 million, a paltry yearly growth rate of 0.2%. To get to 70 million it would have had to be 0.8%, so he's off by a factor of four.

Paul Krugman has a post today from The New York Times about screw-ups he's made and what he's learned from them. This is one of many reasons that if I ever disagree with Mr. Krugman on some topic where I'm even close to as knowledgeable as he is, I will state my case as calmly as possible. Ehrlich relies on math, a field I understand pretty well, and he sucks at it again and again and I've NEVER seen him admit his mistakes. He is in that group I call The Undeserving Employed. This is the last we will see of him and a new regular predictor will be in his place next Friday. I don't think it's possible to find someone worse.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

We return to 1893. Sadly, I can find no pictures of our prognosticator, so the post will be facial hair free.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!
 

6 June 2014

 Birthdays
Ellie Kendrick b. 1990 (Game of Thrones, Being Human)
Daniel Logan b. 1987 (Star Wars: Attack of the Clones, Hercules: The Legendary Journeys)
Philip McGinley b. 1981 (Game of Thrones, Prometheus)
Danny Strong b. 1974 (Buffy, Pleasantville, 3rd Rock from the Sun)
Sonya Walger b. 1974 (FlashForward, Lost, The Sarah Connor Chronicles, The Librarian: Quest for the Spear)
Jay Lake b 1964 died 1 June 2014 (author, City Imperishable, Green, Mainspring)
Paul Giamatti b. 1967 (Amazing Spider-Man 2, John Dies at the End, Lady in the Water, Paycheck, Planet of the Apes, Doctor Doolittle)
Jason Isaacs b. 1963 (Harry Potter, Awake, Elektra, Peter Pan, Resident Evil, Soldier, Armageddon, Event Horizon, DragonHeart, Highlander [TV])
Amanda Pays b. 1959 (Spacejacked, The X-Files, The Flash [TV], Leviathan, Max Headroom, The Kindred)
Danny Webb b. 1958 (Doctor Who, Space Precinct, Alien³)
Cheryl “Rainbeaux” Smith b. 1955 died 25 October 2002 (Independence Day, Parasite, Laserblast, The Incredible Melting Man, Phantom of the Paradise, Lemora: A Child’s Tale of the Supernatural)
Gary Graham b. 1950 (Star Trek: Axanar, Universal Dead, InAlienable, Star Trek: Enterprise, Alien Nation, Star Trek: Voyager, M.A.N.T.I.S., Necromicon: Book of Dead, Robot Jox, The Incredible Hulk)
Robert Englund b. 1947 (Zombie Mutation, Lake Placid: The Final Chapter, Strippers vs Werewolves, Supernatural, Zombie Strippers!, Heart Stopper 2001 Maniacs, A Nightmare on Elm Street, Freddy vs. Jason, Charmed, Python, Urban Legend, Wishmaster, The Vampyre Wars, Sliders, Babylon 5, Knight Rider, V, Manimal, Galaxy of Terror)
David Dukes b. 1945 died 9 October 2000 (Sliders, Time Trax, The Handmaid’s Tale, The Twilight Zone)
Richard Paul b. 1940 died 25 December 1998 (Beanstalk, Robo Cop [TV], Out of This World, Amazing Stories, Space Force, Exorcist II: The Heretic, Holmes and Yo-Yo)
Billie Whitelaw b. 1932 (The Cloning of Joanna May, Supernatural [1977], Space: 1999, The Omen, The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde [TV, 1968])

I enjoy doing the research each morning. Every day is different, obviously. For iconic, it's hard to beat Robert Engund as Freddy Kruger and I'd say Paul Giamatti is the actor best known when not in make-up. As often happens, I run across the names of actors I didn't know were dead, and that was the case with all three, Cheryl Smith, David Dukes and Richard Paul. If I was just being a Whedonverse nerd, I might give the Picture Slot to Danny Strong, but following the Game of Thrones is trump rule while the show airs, we get Ellie Kendrick as Meera Reed, one of Bran Stark's protectors.

Best wishes to the living on the list and to the dead, thanks for all the memories.

Predictor: Dr. Paul Ehrlich, speaking on the first Earth Day in 1970

Prediction: "...in ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish."

Reality: It's amazing this guy was taken seriously back in the day and even now, organizations are giving him honors. He gets one last prediction next week, and it stinks as bad as the rest.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Back to 1893 and one of the few female predictors.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!

29 May 2014

 Birthdays
Pamela Kwiatowski b. 1994 (Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters)
Gregg Sulkin b. 1992 (Wizards of Waverly Place, The Sarah Jane Adventures, Man on the Moon [TV])
Anita Briem b. 1982 (Journey to the Center of the Earth, Doctor Who)
Elyas M’Barek b. 1982 (The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones)
Justin Chon b. 1981 (Twilight, Innocent Blood, Detention of the Dead)
Chris Violette b. 1981 (Bitten, Lost Girl, My Babysitter’s a Vampire, Diary of the Dead, Power Rangers S.P.D.)
Adam Brown b. 1980 (The Hobbitt)
Steve Cardenas b. 1974 (Mighty Morphin Power Rangers)
Adrian Paul b. 1959 (Abominable Snowman, Eyeborgs, Highlander, Charmed, The Breed, Dark Shadows [1991], War of the Worlds [TV], Masque of the Red Death, Beauty and the Beast)
Rupert Everett b. 1959 (Stardust, Shrek II and III, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe)
Wayne Duvall b. 1958 (Evolution, Seven Days, Timecop, Sabrina, the Teenage Witch, Apollo 13, The X-Files)
Annette Bening b. 1958 (What Planet Are You From?, Mars Attacks!)
Ted Levine b. 1957 (The Hills Have Eyes, Evolution, From the Earth to the Moon)
Cotter Smith b. 1949 (Revolution, 666 Park Avenue, Invasion, X-Men 2, Invader [1996], The Twilight Zone [1986])
Robert Axelrod b. 1949 (Bite Me, Power Rangers Time Force, The Blob [1988], Alien Private Eye, Alice in Wonderland [1985])
Nick Mancuso b. 1948 (Rise of the Gargoyles, Saurian, Mutant X, Total Recall 2070, Eerie, Indiana: The Other Dimension)
Anthony Geary b. 1947 (Project U.F.O., The Amazing Captain Nemo, The Six Million Dollar Man)
Kevin Conway b. 1942 (Dark Angel, Lawnmower Man 2: Beyond Cyberspace, Star Trek: The Next Generation)
Paul R. Ehrlich b. 1932 (author, The Population Bomb)
Clifton James b. 1921 (Monsters, Superman II, The Six Million Dollar Man, The Werewolf of Washington)
Sebastian Shaw b. 1905 died 23 December 1994 (Return of the Jedi)

Okay, I'll admit it. I don't know the work of anyone on this list younger than Rupert Everett, but they had genre credits listed on imdb.com, so here they are. Last year I had the picture of Sebastian Shaw as the ghost of Anakin Skywalker from the un-remastered Return of the Jedi, but this year the Picture Slot goes to Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich, who gets my vote as the worst of our regular predictors, even less accurate than Ray Kurzweil. I can make a positive statement about Dr. Ehrlich, at least from this picture.

Nice facial hair, doc.

Many happy returns to the living on the list and to Sebastian Shaw, at least you were dead when they made you a non-person.


Movies released
Up released 2009

Predictor: Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich from his 1968 bestseller The Population Bomb

Prediction: From page 161 of the paperback version: "The Paddocks deserve immense credit for their courage and foresight in publishing Famine – 1975!, which may be remembered as one of the most important books of our age."

Reality: This book has pretty much the same message as Ehrlich's, but it has been forgotten for the most part because it was 100% wrong in its conclusions. Searching for it in local library catalogs, it can't be found in the public libraries of San Francisco, Oakland or Berkeley, but it is in the UC Berkeley library.

This is the last prediction from The Population Bomb, but I found a couple more public predictions from Ehrlich not in the book, so he gets a few more weeks before he returns to the ash heap of history.  

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Yet another interruption of our weekly schedule, this one based on an exact date from a speculative fiction novel.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!

23 May 2014

Birthdays
Devin Douglas Drewitz b. 1989 (Smallville, X-Men 2, Taken, Jeremiah, Dark Angel)
D.J. Cotrona b. 1980 (From Dusk Till Dawn [TV], G.I. Joe: Retaliation)
H. Jon Benjamin b. 1966 (The Venture Bros, Lucy: Daughter of the Devil)
Melissa McBride b. 1965 (The Walking Dead, The Mist, American Gothic, Mutant Species)
Patricia and Cyb Barnstable b. 1951 (Quark)
Joan Collins b. 1933 (Star Trek, Faerie Tale Theatre, Future Cop, The Fantastic Journey, Space: 1999, Batman)
Barbara Barrie b. 1931 (Tucker’s Witch, The Invaders, Twilight Zone)
James Blish b. 1921 died 29 July 1975 (won 1959 Hugo for A Case Of Conscience)
Scatman Crothers b. 1910 died 22 November 1986 (Twilight Zone: The Movie, Deadly Eyes, Zapped!, The Shining, The Incredible Hulk, Kolchak: The Night Stalker, Bewitched)

Not a long list today and it betrays at least one of my quirks. I don't count work in animation in general, but I make an exception for The Venture Bros., one of my favorite shows of any kind this century. James Blish got the Picture Slot last year, but this year it goes to Joan Collins from her well-known role on Star Trek, here pictured with an uncredited Canadian actor.

I kid. I'm a kidder.

Many happy returns to all the living on the list and to the dead, thanks for all the memories. 
 

Predictor: Dr. Paul Ehrlich from his 1968 book The Population Bomb

Prediction: We will be using 600 billion gallons of water a day by 1984 in U.S.

Reality: Water usage peaked in 1980 at around 400 billion gallons per day, give or take 30 billion, In the mid 1980s, it was down to   370 billion gallons ± 30 billion.

Numerically, this prediction really stinks and it shows Ehrlich's big weakness, the love for the worst case scenario. He expected water usage to double from the late 1960s to the mid 1980s, when in reality it went up about 10%. He never assumes there will be any technological progress and that growth rates will never stabilize or shrink. The reduction in growth rates has been the big story of the past half century.

This brings us once again to the current day analogy. If an "expert" like Ehrlich could have been so wrong about the effects of population growth, can't the eggheads who warn about climate change be just as wrong? It is my assumption that the answer is yes, they could be. But it is also possible that they are on the money or even erring on the conservative side.

The big difference I see now is the level of contempt the right wing has for any environmental concerns. When Ehrlich wrote The Population Bomb, Lake Erie was a dead zone, but government and industry working together made improvements and the fishing industry returned. Now, climate change is threatening Lake Erie just as much as pollution did back in the 1960s. Will business and government work together again, or will the interests of the fossil fuel industry trump everything else? I wish I could be an optimist. Reading the clumsy pessimism of Paul Ehrlich should give me cause for hope, but I get this nagging feeling that this time, it's worse.

Happy Friday!

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Facial hair? Oh, yes. And a 19th Century first name I have never before. And a prediction to boot!

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!
 

16 May 2014

 Birthdays
Thomas Brodie Sangster b. 1990 (The Maze Runner, Game of Thrones, Doctor Who, Nanny McPhee)
Megan Fox b. 1986 (Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Jonah Hex, Jennifer’s Body, Transformers)
Stanislav Ianevski b. 1985 (Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire)
Joseph Morgan b. 1981 (The Originals, The Vampire Diaries, Immortals, Hex)
Lynn Collins b. 1977 (John Carter, X-Men: Origins, True Blood, Bug)
Melanie Lynsky b. 1977 (Seeking a Friend for the End of the World, Rose Red, The Frighteners)
David Boreanaz b. 1969 (Buffy, Angel, The Crow: Wicked Prayer)
Solveig Dommartin b. 1961 died 11 January 2007 (Until the End of the World, Wings of Desire)
Bruce Norris b. 1960 (The Sixth Sense)
Mare Winningham b. 1959 (American Horror Story, Under the Dome, Mirror Mirror, Torchwood, Twilight Zone, Threshold)
Debra Winger b. 1955 (Wonder Woman)
Pierce Brosnan b. 1953 (The World’s End, Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief, Mars Attacks!, The Lawnmower Man)
Laurette Spang b. 1951 (Battlestar Galactica, Man from Atlantis, Project U.F.O., Gemini Man, The Six Million Dollar Man)
Bill Smitrovich b. 1947 (Ted, Iron Man, The Event, Millennium, Independence Day, The Phantom, Star Trek: Deep Space Nine, Splash)
Danny Trejo b. 1944 (Rise of the Zombies, Spy Kids, Stargate: Atlantis, Halloween [2007]The X-Files, From Dusk Till Dawn, Anaconda)
Yvonne Craig b. 1937 (The Six Million Dollar Man, Holmes and Yo-Yo, Land of the Giants, Star Trek, Batman, Mars Needs Women, My Favorite Martian, Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea)
Harry Carey Jr. b 1921 died 27 December 2012 (The Exorcist III, Back to the Future III, Cherry 2000, Gremlins, Billy the Kid vs. Dracula)
Barry Atwater b. 1918 died 24 May 1978 (Star Trek, The Invaders, Bewitched, The Outer Limits, Twilight Zone)
George Gaynes b. 1917 (Sliders, The Fantastic Four [1994], Altered States, The Six Million Dollar Man)
Henry Fonda b. 1905 died 12 August 1982 (Meteor, The Swarm, Tentacles)

Quite often when doing research for the birthdays, I really don't know the work of the younger folks on the list, but that's not the case for the youngest, Thomas Brodie Sangster as Jojen Reed on Game of Thrones. This list has movie and TV stars, Oh That Guys and plenty of fabulous babes. Last year in the picture slot was Lynn Collins from John Carter, who looks like a million bucks in new shiny bills, but if I were asked for my number one choice for babedom on this list, Solveig Dommartin as the acrobat in Wings of Desire is one of the most beautiful women on film ever.

The other big surprise for me is that George Gaynes, better known for Punky Brewster, Tootsie and the Police Academy movies is still alive! Good on ya, Mr. Gaynes!

Many happy returns to all the living on the list and to the dead, thanks for all the memories.

Movies released
Shrek released, 2001
Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones released, 2002
The Chronicles of Narnia:Prince Caspian released, 2008
Star Trek Into Darkness released, 2013

Predictor: Dr. Paul R Ehrlich in the 1968 book The Population Bomb

Prediction: By 1980, there will be 200,000,000 more people in India and there will not be enough food for them.

Reality: Here's a sentence I haven't typed before.

This prediction by Paul Ehrlich is in the ballpark.

From the sources I can find dealing with the year by year population increase in India from 1968 to 1980, the population rose by about 170,000,000. If he was rounding to the nearest hundred million, he's got it right. Score one for Stanford.

Just to be clear, there are still three more from Ehrlich before he steps off the stage, and all of those are completely crazy wrong, much like the seven I've published previously. As much fun as I made of Heinlein, regular readers will recall there was Sensible Bob as well as Ridiculous Bob. A single case of Sensible Ehrlich is not enough to merit a special category.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Back to 1893 and one of the rare sets of predictions from a woman.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!
 

9 May 2014

Birthdays
Chris Zylka b. 1985 (The Amazing Spider-Man, Piranha 3DD, Shark Night 3D)
Rosario Dawson b. 1979 (Sin City, Parts Per Billion, Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief, Grindhouse, The Adventures of Pluto Nash, Men in Black 2)
Karl Thanning b. 1977 (Dredd, Starship Troopers 3: Marauder, Doomsday, The Triangle, Supernova, Cavegirl)
Megumi Odaka b. 1972 (Godzilla vs. Destroyah, Godzilla vs. Space Godzilla, Godzilla vs. Mecagodzilla, Gojira vs. Mosura, Godzilla vs. Biollante, Princess from the Moon)
Hudson Leick b. 1969 (Xena, Hercules: The Legendary Journeys, Knight Rider 2010)
John Corbett b. 1961 (The Sky’s on Fire, The Warlord: Battle for the Galaxy, The Visitor [TV series], Volcano)
Chuck Russell b. 1958 (director, The Scorpion King, The Mask, The Blob, A Nightmare on Elm Street: Dream Warriors)
Lorena Gale b. 1958 died 21 June 2009 (The Day the Earth Stood Still, Battlestar Galactica, Bionic Woman [2007], The 4400, Slither, Supernatural, Neverwas, Fantastic Four, The Chronicles of Riddick, 10.5, Kingdom Hospital, The Butterfly Effect, Smallville, Dead Like Me, Stephen King’s Dead Zone, Halloween: Resurrection, Dark Angel, Stargate SG-1, Runaway Virus, Zenon; Girl of the 21st Century, Honey, I Shrunk the Kids: The TV Show, The X-Files, Millennium, Deadlocked: Escape from Zone 14, M.A.N.T.I.S., Highlander, The Fly II)
Tessa Peake-Jones b. 1957 (Doctor Who, The Lost World, The Demon Headmaster)
Kevin Peter Hall b. 1955 died 10 April 1991 (Highway to Hell, Harry and the Hendersons [TV and movie], Predator, Star Trek: The Next Generation, Misfits of Science, Monster in the Closet, Mazes and Monsters, Without Warning, Prophecy)
Anthony Higgins b. 1947 (Malice in Wonderland, The Bride, Raiders of the Lost Ark, Vampire Circus, Taste the Blood of Dracula)
Virginia Wetherell b. 1943 (Bram Stoker’s Dracula, Demons of the Mind, A Clockwork Orange, Dr Jekyll and Sister Hyde, Doctor Who)
Albert Finney b. 1936 (Big Fish, Breakfast of Champions, Looker, Wolfen)
William M. Marston b. 1893 died 2 May 1947 (writer, Wonder Woman)
J.M. Barrie b. 1860 died 19 June 1937 (author, Peter Pan)

Quite a list today. The creators of Peter Pan and Wonder Woman, one of my favorite actors in Albert Finney, a couple of fabulous babes in Hudson Leick and Rosario Dawson (last year's Picture Slot choice), but the names that caught my attention are two people who were born about the same time I was who are now dead. The first is the very tall Kevin Peter Hall, who spent a lot of his career in costumes in movies including Predator, Harry and the Hendersons and Prophecy. And secondly and in the Picture Slot, Lorena Gale, whose career qualifies her as an Oh That Gal, somewhat rarer than Oh That Guys, pictured here from Battlestar Galactica, the role for which she said she was most recognized.

Many happy returns to the living on the list and to the dead, thanks for all the memories.

Predictor: Dr. Paul Ehrlich in the 1968 book The Population Bomb

Prediction:
Scenario #3:
1974: U.S. stops sending food to India, Egypt and other countries beyond hope
1985: Major dieback is over, developed nations use famine relief with population control to get population back to 2 billion in 2025 and 1.5 billion in 2100.

Reality: At least this one didn't involve nukes. There has been no major dieback and while it's still possible, the thing that makes his book so ridiculous in hindsight is how certain he was that 3.5 billion people had to be unsustainable.

The good news about population is that now that infant mortality rates are decreasing, so are birth rates around the world and the rate of increase is definitely slowing.  The bad news isn't world hunger so much as the overuse of other resources, most notably fossil fuels, the cause of horrible pollution in places like China and nasty environmental accidents worldwide, and of course, adding to the CO2 levels that cause climate change.

The real problem with global warming is not that it's so immediate but instead that it is so gradual. This is exactly the sort of problem humans don't solve well.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

We interrupt our regular weekly rotation with an exact for the start of a nuclear war.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!
 

25 April 2014

 Birthdays
Heather Sossaman b. 1987 (10.0 The Big One, Buffy)
Daniel Sharman b. 1986 (Teen Wolf, Immortals)
Marguerite Moreau b. 1977 (Smallville, Firestarter 2: Rekindled, Queen of the Damned, Mighty Joe Young, 3rd Rock from the Sun)
Emily Bergl b. 1975 (Warehouse 13, Star Trek: Enterprise, Taken, The Rage: Carrie 2)
Gina Torres b. 1969 (The Vampire Diaries, FlashForward, Serenity, Firefly, The Matrix Revolutions, The Matrix Reloaded, Angel, Cleopatra 2525, Hercules: The Legendary Journeys, Xena, M.A.N.T.I.S.)
Hank Azaria b. 1964 (Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian, Mystery Men, Godzilla [1998])
Daniel Kash b. 1959 (Orphan Black, RoboCop [2014], Alphas, Lost Girl, Repo Men, The Dresden Files, Jack Brooks: Monster Slayer, Diary of the Dead, Mutant X, Veritas: The Quest, Total Recall 2070, Virus, RoboCop [TV], Forever Knight, Nightbreed, War of the Worlds [TV], Aliens)
Ron Clements b. 1953 (director, The Princess and the Frog, Treasure Planet, Hercules, Aladdin, The Little Mermaid)
Peter Jurasik b. 1950 (Quantum Apocalypse, Sliders, 3rd Rock from the Sun, Babylon 5, TRON[1982])
Jeffrey DeMunn b. 1947 (The Walking Dead, The X-Files, Phenomenon, The Blob [1988], Twilight Zone [1984])
Al Pacino b. 1940 (S1m0ne, The Devil’s Advocate)
Kay E. Kuter b. 1925 died 12 November 2003 (Charmed, Sabrina, the Teenage Witch, The X-Files, Star Trek: Deep Space Nine, Star Trek: The Next Generation, Beauty and the Beast, V, The Twilight Zone [1986], The Last Starfighter, Far Out Space Nuts, I Dream of Jeannie, The Outer Limits, The Mole People)

Last year I put up a picture of Gina Torres and I was sorely tempted to do so again, but there were some tough choices. Jeffrey DeMunn has gone from Oh That Guy to somewhat iconic with his role on The Walking Dead and the late Kay E. Kuter was a great Oh That Guy. But instead, showing love for the forgotten and somewhat derided classic from the 1990s Babylon 5, I have a picture of Peter Jurasik as Londo Mollari.

Many happy returns to all the living on the list and to Kay E. Kuter, thanks for all the memories.

Predictor: Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich in the 1968 book The Population Bomb

Prediction: Scenario #2:
1979: Mexico, last non-Communist Latin American government, is replaced by a Chinese-supported junta.
Stalemate with Chinese in Southeast Asia.
Bubonic plague in Egypt averts U.S.-Soviet confrontation in the Mediterranean.
Food shortages in U.S.
L.A. killer smog wipes out 90K in two years.
Sino-Soviet nuclear war destroys life in Northern Hemisphere.

Reality: I will stipulate (and my commenters agree) that Lee de Forest, "the father of radio", stunk the place out yesterday with his atomic rockets prediction. But here's his lucky position at the table.

For at least another couple weeks, his predictions, no matter how bad (and not all of them are) are followed by Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich, who STUNK ON ICE over and over and over again.

De Forest is dead and Ehrlich is alive and still accepting honorary awards. If he ever stumbles upon this blog, I have one piece of advice.

Apologize for your public sins before you die. Better to be Robert MacNamara than Donald Rumsfeld.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Regular readers will know it's time for a trip back to 1893. Sadly, this one will be without bold facial hair or even a bold prediction.

(I think this breaks several rules of coming attractions. My bad.)

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!
 

11 April 2014

Birthdays
Marcus Johns b. 1993 (The Punisher)
Dakota Blue Richards b. 1994 (The Golden Compass)
Kelli Garner b. 1984 (Buffy)
Tricia Helfer b. 1974 (Battlestar Galactica, Bloodwork, No Ordinary Family, Warehouse 13, Supernatural, Them [2007], Jeremiah)
Jennifer Esposito b. 1973 (Dracula 2000)
Jerry Becker b. 1951 (Charmed, Spider-Man, Angel, The Cell, Mystery Men)
Bill Irwin b. 1950 (Interstellar, lady in the Water, Third Rock from the Sun)
John Milius b. 1944 (writer/director, Conan the Barbarian)
Joel Grey b. 1932 (Warehouse 13, Buffy, Star Trek: Voyager)

Okay, I'll say it. This is a short list. When it comes to iconic roles and the Pretty Girl = Picture Slot rule, Tricia Helfer dominates this group, much in the same way she dominates certain areas of my brain. I might go with Joel Grey from Buffy one of these days just because I'm such a Whedonverse nerd, but don't hold me to that.

'Cos she's purdy.

Many happy returns to the living on the list, and to the dead... wait a second!

Nobody's dead!

Yay! Let's keep it that way, folks!

Predictor: Dr. Paul Ehrlich in The Population Bomb, published 1968

Prediction: Scenario #1
1972: War in Thailand

Jan. 1973: China sends troops to Thailand

U.S. uses tactical nukes on Chinese air bases

China retaliates with five dirty bombs from subs sending fallout on the West Coast, 100,000,000 deaths

Reality: I cannot overstress how much Ehrlich's book sucks when he gets to specific dates. I may get labeled a concern troll when it comes to doomsday scenarios about current problems like climate change, but here is my defense.

There is no "believing" in climate change, much in the same way there is no "believing" in evolution or a heliocentric solar system. These things are real and anyone telling you otherwise is selling something, and what they sell isn't in your best interests.

I am not a climate change skeptic. I am a prediction skeptic and regular readers will understand why.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Back to 1893, an era of bold optimism and facial hair.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!
 

28 March 2014

 Birthdays
Gareth David-Lloyd b. 1981 (Warehouse 13, Red Faction: Origins, Torchwood, Doctor Who)
Richard Kelly b. 1975 (writer/director, The Box, Southland Tales, Donnie Darko)
Nick Frost b. 1972 (The World’s End, Snow White and the Huntsman, Paul, Hyperdrive, Shaun of the Dead)
Vince Vaughn b. 1970 (The Watch, Fred Claus, The Cell, The Lost World: Jurassic Park)
Brett Ratner b. 1969 (director, X-Men: The Last Stand)
Darcy Laurie b. 1966 (Arrow, Continuum, Supernatural, Fringe, V, Battlestar Galactica, Kyle XY, Stephen King’s Dead Zone, Stargate SG-1, The Chronicles of Riddick, Jeremiah, Twilight Zone, Dark Angel, The Chronicle, Atomic Train, Poltergeist: The Legacy, The X-Files, Highlander: The Final Dimension, The Crow: Stairway to Heaven)
Chris Barrie b. 1960 (Red Dwarf, Lara Croft)
Reba McEntire b. 1955 (Tremors)
Mike Newell b. 1942 (director, Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire)

A short list today and everyone is alive. In my mind, the Picture Slot choices was a Battle of the Brits, either Rimmer from Red Dwarf or Nick Frost, probably a shot from Shaun of the Dead. The third possibility was Reba McIntire from her one genre role in Tremors, still one of my favorite monster movies.

Many happy returns to all the living on the list.

Movies released
G.I. Joe:Retaliation released, 2013

Predictor: Dr. Paul Ehrlich from the 1968 bestseller The Population Bomb

Prediction: A few degrees of heating causes the ocean levels to rise 250 feet.

Reality: I do not want to be accused of cherry-picking quotes to make Dr. Ehrlich look like an idiot. I went through the book looking for dates in the future from his 1968 vantage point and I put them on a list.

It's Dr. Ehrlich's sloppy work that makes him look like an idiot.

I am not so much a climate change skeptic as I am a prediction skeptic. I've seen so many examples of serious problems made to look unimportant and alarmist by bad numbers, sloppy research and overblown predictions.  For an example, an often quoted number on the Internet is that the average life expectancy of former NFL players is 55. That statistic seemed extremely unlikely to me, so I did some math to check it back in 2012 and found no evidence that former pro football players had a significant difference compared to other men their age of how long they could expect to live. The data says they live slightly longer, and baseball players slightly shorter. Again not significant in any direction with the data sets I compiled, all of which were about size 100.

A lot of literate people I've met remember the name Paul Ehrlich, but very few recall how bad his research was.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

We return to 1893 with more ideas about what the 20th Century would look like, this time sadly without any picture showing proud 19th Century facial hair.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!

21 March 2014

 Birthdays
Scott Eastwood b. 1986 (Texas Chainsaw 3D)
Joseph Mawle b. 1974 (Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, Game of Thrones, Merlin[2009])
Vanessa Branch b. 1973 (Pirates of the Caribbean, Lost, The Invisible Man [TV], Star Trek: Voyager, The Cell)
Jaye Davidson b. 1968 (Stargate)
Karyn Kusama b. 1968 (director, Jennifer’s Body, Aeon Flux)
Greg Ellis b. 1968 (The Hobbit, Pirates of the Caribbean, Star Trek [reboot], Beowulf, Star Trek: Deep Space Nine, The X-Files)
Matthew Broderick b. 1962 (Inspector Gadget, Godzilla [1998], Project X, WarGames, Ladyhawke)
Kassie Wesley DePaiva b. 1961 (Time Trax, Evil Dead II)
Sabrina Le Beauf b. 1958 (Star Trek: The Next Generation)
Gary Oldman b. 1958 (Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, RoboCop, The Dark Knight Rises, Harry Potter, The Dark Knight, Batman Begins, Lost in Space [movie], The Fifth Element, Dracula)
Timothy Dalton b. 1944 (Doctor Who, Hercules [TV], Flash Gordon)
Al Williamson b. 1931 died 12 June 2010 (illustrator, Flash Gordon)
Gustav Frohlich b. 1902 died 22 December 1987 (Metropolis)

Today's Picture Slot is about me jonesing for more Game of Thrones, so much so that I'll put in a picture of Benjen Stark, though Ned's brother who took the black but hasn't been seen much recently. Not a lucky family I can safely say.

Gary Oldman got the Picture last year. For me, the most unusual tidbit from this list is that Sabrina Le Beauf, the oldest Cosby kid and Oldman are exactly the same age. I would not have guessed that.

Many happy returns to the living on our list, and to the dead, thanks for all the memories.

Predictor: Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich in his 1968 book The Population Bomb

Prediction (reality in brackets): Ehrlich predicts how long it will take some third world nations to double in population.

The understated
Kenya: 24 (1968-1986 18 years)
Nigeria: 28 (1974-2000 26 years)

The slightly overstated
Indonesia: 31 (1972-2010 38 years)
Philippines: 20 (1973-2001 28 years)
Brazil: 22 (1964-1995 31 years)

The massively overstated
Turkey: 24 (1967-2004 37 years)
El Salvador: 19 (1962-2002 40 years)

More reality: Ehrlich is supposed to be an expert, a professor from Stanford who you would expect to dot all the j's and cross all the x's. But whenever actual numbers find their way into his book, he's quite often way off. His overall premise was that mass starvation was just around the corner, but we have had our great population increase, which is now slowing down, without a major die-off. If the greater numbers appear to have any major effect in the world today, it's much more about the consumption of fossil fuels than it is about the food supply, or at least that's how it looks today.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

A humorist whose name is obscured by the passing of time predicts the 20th Century from 1893.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!
 

14 March 2014

 Birthdays
Jamie Bell b. 1986 (The Fantastic Four [2015], Jumper, Snowpiercer, Jumper, King Kong [2005])
Mercedes McNab b. 1980 (Supernatural, Angel, Buffy, Escape from Atlantis, The Fantastic Four, The Addams Family, Harry and the Hendersons [TV])
Chris Klein b. 1979 (Rollerball [2002])
Daniel Gillies b. 1976 (The Vampire Diaries, The Originals, True Blood, Spider-Man 2, Jeremiah, Cleopatra 2525, Young Hercules)
Grace Park b. 1974 (Battlestar Galactica, Stephen King’s Dead Zone, Andromeda, Jake 2.0, Stargate SG-1, Dark Angel, The Immortal)
James Frain b. 1968 (Sleepy Hollow, Grimm, Tron Legacy, True Blood, FlashForward, Fringe, Invasion, Threshold, Loch Ness)
Kevin Williamson b. 1965 (writer, The Vampire Diaries, The Faculty)
Season Hubley b. 1951 (Humanoids From the Deep, The Twilight Zone [1985], Escape form New York)
Billy Crystal b. 1948 (The Princess Bride, Monsters, Inc. Monster’s U., Howl’s Moving Castle)
Wolfgang Petersen b. 1941 (director, The Neverending Story, Enemy Mine, Outbreak)
Eugene Cernan b. 1934 (astronaut)
Michael Caine b. 1933 (Batman Begins, The Dark Knight, The Dark Knight Rises, Journey 2: The Mysterious Island, Inception, Children of Men, The Prestige, Bewitched [2005], 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea [1997], Jekyll & Hyde [TV], The Swarm, The Magus)
Albert Einstein b. 1979 died 18 April 1955 (physicist)

My rule in 2014: Astronauts are trump when it comes to selection for the Picture Slot. Gene Cernan walked on the moon and left his daughter's initials there. The many pretty girls on the list and the one movie star - Michael Caine - will get a chance next year.

Another possible choice for next year is Einstein. To be clear, I don't consider his work or Cernan's to be "fiction" in any way, but astronauts get included because space travel is so essential to the genre and Einstein is on the list for his thought experiments that revealed the very strange nature of light. At least in the public's mind, he is also the father of The Atomic Age, another idea vital to the genre.

Here's wishing many happy returns to all the living on our list and to Albert Einstein, thank you for your contributions to the understanding of the universe and the place of the public intellectual and citizen/scientist.

Predictor: Dr. Paul R. Ehrlich, author of The Population Bomb, published 1968

Prediction: The population growth from 2 billion to 4 billion will take 37 years.

Reality: Multiple online sources agree these on the 2 billion threshold being met in 1927 and passing 4 billion took place in 1974. That is a span of 47 years, not 37.

Some might argue I'm just being a nitpicking math professor about this, but if we recall that 1927+37 = 1964, being off by ten years means 4 billion people would have happened four years before his book was published.

If Einstein is a positive role model for citizen/scientists, Ehrlich is about as bad as a citizen/scientist can do in the public sphere. He is pathetically sloppy when it comes to numbers and by overstating problems, he makes concern about those problems look like foolishness. While our new Thursday regular Lee de Forest made some very accurate forecasts in 1960, Ehrlich in 1968 will continue the horrible track record he has started with his first two clunkers.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Back to 1893, a time of optimism and facial hair.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!
 

7 March 2014

Birthdays
Tobias Menzies b. 1974 (Game of Thrones, Doctor Who, The Deep [TV])
Jolie Jenkins b. 1974 (The X-Files, Psycho Beach Party)
Larry Bagby b. 1974 (Age of the Dragons, Buffy, Invasion Earth: The Aliens are Here)
Peter Sarsgaard b. 1971 (Green Lantern)
Matthew Vaughn b. 1971 (director, X-Men: First Class, Kick-Ass, Stardust)
Rachel Weisz b. 1970 (Oz the Great and Powerful, The Mummy, Chain Reaction, Death Machine)
Jonathan Del Arco b. 1966 (Dollhouse, Star Trek: Voyager, Star Trek: The Next Generation)
Donna Murphy b. 1959 (Spider-Man 2, The Astronaut’s Wife, Star Trek: Insurrection)
Nick Searcy b. 1959 (From the Earth to the Moon, American Gothic, Seven Days)
Bryan Cranston b. 1955 (Godzilla [2014], Total Recall[2012]. John Carter, Contagion, Fallen, 3rd Rock from the Sun, Honey, I Shrunk the Kids: The TV Show, The X-Files, From the Earth to the Moon, Babylon 5, The Flash, The Return of the Six-Million Dollar Man and the Bionic Woman)
John Heard b. 1945 (Sharknado, Battlestar Galactica, C.H.U.D., Cat People)
Elizabeth Moon b. 1945 (won 2004 Nebula for The Speed of Dark)
Daniel J. Travanti b. 1940 (Poltergiest: The Legacy, The Wasp Woman [TV], Lost in Space, Captain Nice)
Gray Morrow b. 1934 died 6 November 2001 (illustrator)
James Broderick b. 1927 died 1 November 1982 (Twilight Zone)

Interesting birthday list today. Instead of being coy, I will cut to the chase. Why Rachel Weisz in the Picture Slot? Who says no to a pretty girl with flying monkeys?

Still, there was a chase. Last year I had Donna Murphy in her role on Star Trek in the Picture Slot. As a Game of Thrones nerd, Tobias Menzies was an option. As a Whedonverse nerd, Larry Bagby could have been featured. Two big surprises for me were the careers of Bryan Cranston, whose best known work before Breaking Bad was almost all in comedy, and Daniel J. Travanti, who needed to pay the bills recently and ended up in The Wasp Woman and early in his career played Space Hippie on Lost in Space. (Those kinds of roles must look so good on the C.V.)

And John Heard was in Sharknado? Acting is a hard gig.

Many happy returns to all the living on the list and to the dead, thanks for all the memories.


 

Predictor: Dr. Paul Ehrlich in The Population Bomb, published 1968

Prediction: By 1970, nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world’s death rate.

Reality: Allow me to introduce Dr. Paul Ehrlich, a professor at Stanford, whose 1968 book The Population Bomb made quite a splash. As you can see here, it even got published in paperback. Predictions from this book will be our regular Friday feature for the next few months.

Also, get used to this reality. Ehrlich was pulling numbers out of... well, let's just say they don't smell nice. This one in particular was completely against the trend as the UN reported it.

1960-1965 15.5 per 1,000
1965-1970 13.2 per 1,000
1970-1975 11.4 per 1,000
1975-1980 10.7 per 1,000

While these numbers are called "the crude death rates" and not all sources agree on them, there is general agreement on the trend. Death rates have been falling since at least 1950 and continue to do so, though they are falling less steeply now than they did back in the day.

Overpopulation and nuclear war are two of the great terrors of science fiction and futurists, but we've avoided a second nuclear war since 1945 and the food supply - while not perfect - is actually doing better now when we have seven billion than it did when we only had three billion. Dr. Ehrlich was convinced that a hellish, nigh apocalyptic world was just around the corner.

Predicting that everything is going to be skittles and beer does not get your paperback printed. But as for Dr. Ehrlich and his job at Stanford and his still strong reputation, let me just say two words.

Go Cal!

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Back to 1893 for a cheerier view of the road ahead.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!