22 February 2014 - updated with Ragnarök!

 Birthdays
Bryce Hodgson b. 1989 (The Tomorrow People, Supernatural, Battlestar Galactica, Smallville, X-Men 2, Stargate SG-1)
Dichen Lachman b. 1982 (Being Human, Torchwood, The Guild, Dollhouse, Tyrannosaurus Azteca, Aquamarine)
Drew Barrymore b. 1975 (Donnie Darko, Batman Forever, Cat’s Eye, Firestarter, E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, Altered States)
Thomas Jane b. 1969 (The Punisher, Mutant Chronicles, Dreamcatcher, Deep Blue Sea, The Crow: City of Angels, Buffy the Vampire Slayer [movie], She-Wolf of London)
Jeri Ryan b. 1968 (Helix, Warehouse 13, Star Trek: Voyager, Dracula 2000, Dark Skies, Time Trax)
Steve Spiers b. 1965 (Krod Mandoon and the Flaming Sword of Fire, Inkheart, Eragon, Doctor Who, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest, Star Wars: Episode I)
Kyle MacLachlan b, 1959 (Believe, Mysterious Island, Timecode, The Invisible Man [TV], Roswell, Dune)
Nigel Planer b. 1953 (Hogfather, Brazil)
Ellen Greene b. 1951 (The Walking Dead, Heroes, The X-Files, Little Shop of Horrors)
Julie Walters b. 1950 (Harry Potter, Jack and the Beanstalk, Little Red Riding Hood)
Joanna Russ b. 1937 died 29 April 2011 (author, Alyx series, The Female Man)
James Hong b. 1929 (R.I.P.D., The Day the Earth Stood Still, The Big Bang Theory, Charmed, Blade Runner, The X-Files, Tank Girl, Lois & Clark, The Shadow, Merlin, War of the Worlds [TV], Big Trouble in Little China, Manimal, Wonder Woman, The Bionic Woman, Colossus: The Forbin Project, The Outer Limits, Godzilla [1956])
Paul Dooley b. 1928 (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine)
Edward Gorey b. 1925 died 15 April 2000 (illustrator)
Dwight Frye b. 1899 died 7 November 1943 (Frankenstein Meets the Wolf Man, The Ghost of Frankenstein, The Bride of Frankenstein, The Vampire Bat, Frankenstein, Dracula)

Last year, before I had done as much research, Jeri Ryan was the Picture Slot. She would still be a perfectly good choice this year, both for being iconic and a fabulous babe. As a huge Whedonverse nerd, I could have gone with Dichen Lachman, also fabulous. The biggest career on the list is probably Drew Barrymore, and a picture from E.T or Firestarter would have been immediately recognizable to much of the nerd community, but I was in an Oh That Guy mood. Dwight Frye was a great Oh That Guy way back in the day, playing Renfield in the original Dracula and the assistant Fritz in the original talkie version of Frankenstein. But folks in the know will recognize James Hong, who has been around forever, going all the way back to voiceover work in the original Godzilla.

Many happy returns to all the living on the list, and to the dead, thanks for all the memories.

Predictor: Clarence W. Van Tilburg, contest winner for predictions of the 21st Century is the April 1956 issue of Amazing Stories, the magazine's 30th anniversary.

Explanation: This magazine was a great find last year, and thanks to my pal Alan Ponder for letting me rummage through his collection. As you can see on the cover, they got predictions from all kinds of people, not only Heinlein but Sid Caesar, Salvador Dali and pitcher Herb Score. I'm reprinting the predictions of Clarence W. Van Tilburg, with the realities in the parentheses.

Predictions (realities):
Medicine
1. Great strides in mental therapy. "Psi" professions operating on solid premises. (This is arguable, but anti-depressant drugs have been a great step forward)
2. Banking of human organs; artificial culture of tissues; universal extension of preventative medicine.  (Good calls here.)
3. Life expectancy 88 for women 80 for men in US and many other countries, world average 70. (A little high on all, and the male/female split has shrunk down quite a bit.)

World Politics
1. The big four: USA, USSR, China, India, India leader of the Asian Commonwealth from Iran to Malaya (I'd say it's USA, China and the Eurozone as the big three. Russia or India aren't bad choices for fourth place, but not at the same level.)
2. All Central America coalesced into a single political unit. (No.)

Science, Industry, Technology
1. Maximum work week in US and Canada: 20 hours (Oh, don't we wish!)
2. Top industry: Leisure (Close, but still behind petroleum.)
3. US and USSR have manned satellites and have reached the Moon. (He didn't guess the end of the USSR, but we do have manned stations and the US reached the moon. This was very sci-fi in 1956.)
4. Seas mined in earnest for rare elements and food. (Mainly, we drill for oil, but we do get a lot of fish from the sea.)
5. Desalted sea water used for irrigation and industrial purposes. (Costs still make this impractical.)
6. Direct conversion of sunlight into power and synthesis of food on commercial scales (Solar power yes; synthesis of food... well, it depends on how you feel about seaweed and tofu.)
7. Atomic power in world-wide use (We use much more than we did in 1956, but Three Mile Island and Chernobyl flattened out the growth curve quite a bit.)
8. Long-distance travel almost entirely by air at supersonic speeds (No. Just under supersonic is pretty much the industry standard.)
9. Privately owned helicopters commonly used, heliports on every large building (It's not quite the helicopter paradise envisioned by Van Tilburg, but they do get used regularly.)
10. Plastic glass and light metals common in building construction. (Absolutely true.)
11. Moving sidewalks common. (So sci-fi! So not true.)
12. Shortwave cooking common. (Microwaves, absolutely.)
13. Great increase in telescope range, boundaries of universe still unknown. (Completely so.)

Bonus prediction: Ragnarök!

Predictor: Norse mythology, kind of

Reality:  Legend has it that three freezing winters in a row with no summers in between is the sign that the final battle of the gods will be fought, and the smart money is not betting on the gods. Of course, here in California we haven't had three freezing winters and we definitely had summers in 2013 and 2012, but in York, England they think their weather qualifies, so there you go.

York, England, your bloody whining has brought on the end of the universe. We hope you're happy with yourselves.

As for me, I'm still grading papers and preparing for midterms, so you know my general opinion of the situation.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

We've had a few interruptions in the regular schedule on Sundays, but tomorrow it's another fun romp thinking about the nuclear wars we've avoided.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!

26 December 2013

 Birthdays
Zach Mills b. 1995 (Super 8, Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emporium)
Kit Harington b. 1986 (Game of Thrones)
Temuera Morrison b. 1960 (Star Wars: Episodes II & III, The Island of Dr. Moreau)
Jon Kilik b. 1956 (producer, The Hunger Games, Pleasantville)
Akihiko Hirata b. 1927 died 25 July 1984 (Godzilla, Rodan, The Mysterians, The H-Man, Mothra, King Kong vs. Godzilla, Atragon, Ghidorah, Ultraman, Godzilla vs. the Sea Monster, Son of Godzilla, Godzilla vs. Mechagodzilla)
Shirley Patterson (aka Shawn Smith) b. 1922 died 4 April 1995 (It! The Terror from Beyond Space, World Without End, The Land Unknown, Batman [1943])
Elisha Cook Jr. b. 1903 died 18 May 1995 (Rosemary’s Baby, Star Trek, Salem’s Lot, Blacula, Batman [1966], Adventures of Superman)

Okay! It's St. Stephen's Day and we survived Christmas! The birthday list has more than a few choices for the coveted Picture Slot. For famous right now, Kit Harington, who plays Jon Snow, Ned Stark's bastard who knows nothing, would be the obvious choice. For the "Oh, That Guy" selection, Elisha Cook Jr. started out in the 1930s in character roles and worked for decades with a few roles in genre, probably the best known of those as the lawyer who defends Kirk from a court martial on Star Trek. But instead I went with the Japanese "Oh, That Guy" Akihiko Hirata, who plays the "I have a bad feeling about this" scientist in the original Godzilla and goes on to roles in about a dozen sci-fi and giant monster movies over the next twenty years. (Note: this is the only movie where he wore an eye patch, if I recall correctly.)

Many happy returns to the living on the list and to the departed, thanks for all the memories.

Favorite predictions published in 2013

Three predictions from two contributors to the 30th Anniversary issue of Amazing Stories, dated April 1956.


Hubert J. Schlafly (engineer): Systematic information will be in a form instantly available for response to remote inquiry.

Reality: He didn't say how exactly, but that's not a bad description of the Internet with a search engine. 

Gen. Carlos Romulo (Philippine delegate to the United Nations): Colonialism will have ended... I might be able to talk to Manila from New York with something I have in my pocket.

Reality: Colonialism is pretty much over and a cell phone can call internationally. 

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

The 1970s version of Archie Andrews looks at being a teen... in 2012!

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE! 

25 February 2013

Birthdays
James and Oliver Phelps b. 1986
Sean Astin b. 1971
Tea Leoni b. 1966
Alexis Denisof b. 1966

So we have two pair of exact same birthdays today. One pair are twins so it kinda doesn't count (The play the Weaseley twins in Harry Potter), but the other is Tea Leoni and Alexis Denisof. As a breeder (at least theoretically if not in actual practice) I usually pick the picture of the pretty girl out of a group like this, but I am such a Whedonverse fan I decided to go with Wesley during his scruffy, dark and brooding phase.

And let's not for Sean Astin, the hobbit from Notre Dame.

 

Predictions... for the year 2001!

Predictor: A.W. Zelomek (President, International Statistical Bureau):

U.S. population at 310 million...

Average family of four will have an income of $20,000 in 1955 dollars

Reality: He's high on the population, actually only 285 million. He was project an average increase 1.4% a year and it was closer to 1.2%.  Off, but not crazy off. After all, he's a statistician.

Or maybe he is crazy. The actual median income in 1955 was $5,000. Using the Consumer Price Index to change 1955 dollars to 2001 dollars, $20,000 magically turns into $120,000.

That's a big miss.

Predictor: N. Gonzalez, head of research, Eagle Pencil Company

Prediction: The lead pencil in the hands of creative man has been the genesis of technological advance in our era. And it will remain so for years to come...  I predict that in the year 2001, the lead pencil will be substantially the same as it is today.  

Why? Because today's pencil is perfectly designed and does its job faultlessly.

Reality: I love this prediction, because it's a guy rooting for his company (Yay, pencils!) and talking himself out of a job. The ellipsis leaves out a sentence where he says there will be improvements; I mean, he IS the head of research for pity's sake, but you know his heart isn't really completely in it. How do you improve a perfectly designed product that does its job faultlessly?

I'm betting the guy drank. A lot. And I mean "a lot" by 1956 standards. At least at Roger Sterling "a lot", maybe all the way to Freddy Rumson "a lot".

And this concludes our predictions from Amazing Stories from 1956. My thanks again to Alan Ponder for letting me rifle through his collection of sci-fi pulps. I will be taking more trips up to Stockton to study this valuable resource.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!  Tomorrow, we climb back into the regular routine and see what Grumpy Old Bob Heinlein had to say. Will it be Goofy Heinlein or Sensible Heinlein? I haven't picked it yet, so even I don't know.

Join us then... INTO THE FUTURE!

24 February 2013

 Birthdays
Edward James Olmos b. 1947

...in the year 2001!

-->Predictor:   Gen. Carlos Romulo (Philippine delegate to the United Nations):

Colonialism will have ended...

Instead of 35 million increase a year, world population will increase by 100 million a year...

I might be able to talk to Manila from New York with something I have in my pocket...

Predictor: Oliver Read (editor Radio & Television News):

All rails and planes will be radio-controlled...

Long distance shipping by rockets...

Atomic energy supplies electrical power, solar radiation supplies heat...

Telephones with attached TVs are the standard...

Trips to the moon and Mars should be a reality...

Anti-gravity devices will allow us to float from place to place...

Electronic devices will be able to pick up and decode thought waves...

Reality: The general is obviously not a tech guy and Mr. Read definitely is, but the general gets two out of three (the actual increase per year in 2001 is closer to 70 million), while being generous, Read gets the first one then misses six straight. Planes are more like in constant radio contact rather than truly radio controlled. Rockets use a hell of a lot of fuel and are very hard to land, solar radiated heat is still a very small part of the grid, TV phones exist but aren't standard, space travel, not so much. Anti-gravity was a popular concept in mid-century sci-fi, but that's just a sign that these guys didn't really understand Einstein's ideas about gravity very well. Being anti-gravity means being anti-geometry, and not in the sense that you really didn't enjoy geometry class. 

And then there's electronic telepathy. Well, not yet, not close and - if Odin, Vishnu and the little baby Jebus are kind - not in my lifetime.

 Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE! We finish off the Amazing Stories predictions. A numbers guy doesn't do that well with numbers and a guy who makes pencils tells us... PENCILS ARE AWESOME!

Hard to argue with that.

 
Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!

23 February 2013

Birthdays
Dakota Fanning b. 1994
Kelly Macdonald b. 1976
Majel Barrett-Roddenberry b. 1932 died 12/18/2008  

I love Kelly Macdonald's work, but most of it is not in the sci-fi genre. Ms. Roddenberry, on the other hand, did little else but work on sci-fi TV shows, so she earns a photo.
 

What life will be like... in the year 2001!

Predictor: Leo Cherne (Executive Director, Research Institute of America)
Everyone has access to free power created by solar, atomic energy will be widespread...
The average American will have a 24 hour work week, 6 hours a day four days a week...

Predictor: Hubert J. Schlafly (engineer)
Systematic information will be in a form instantly available for response to remote inquiry...
By 2001, we may be in the dot and dash stage of the electrical transmission of solid matter.

Reality: Solar power is not in the universal access phase and atomic power had some big setbacks. People don't have 24 hour work weeks, except those unlucky bastards working at companies trying to deny them access to health care, so Dr. Cherne lays a big goose egg.

Mr. Schlafly on the other hand gives a pretty good description of the Internet in the statement I underlined. He doesn't say exactly how it will take place and the word "computer" is nowhere to be found, but that isn't surprising. 1956 is akin to the Dark Ages when it comes to computers. As for the electrical transmission of matter, we are a long way away from replicators, but maybe we could count 3D printers as the early starting point, "the dot and dash" stage as Schlafly puts it.

Just don't expect one to give you "Earl Grey tea, hot" anytime soon. Just sayin'.


Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE! The editor of Radio & Television News gets a lot of stuff wrong and a UN delegate from the Philippines gets a lot of stuff right.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!

22 February 2013

Birthdays
-->

Dichen Lachman b. 1982

Jeri Ryan b. 1968

Julie Walters b. 1950

That's a Whedonverse/Star Trek/Harry Potter trifecta for ya, you betcha! Some people may disagree with my selection of just a facial portrait of the lovely Ms. Ryan, but so many of the body shots of her as Seven of Nine lack subtlety, if you get my drift.

Many happy returns to all three actresses.

Today's predictions from the 1956 30th Anniversay issue of Amazing Stories come from their contest winner Clarence W. Van Tilburg.  He made a passel of predictions, so instead of spooning them out one by one, I give all of them here with a reality check after each one in italics and parentheses.

Medicine
1. Great strides in mental therapy. "Psi" professions operating on a solid premises. (He means psychiatry and psychology. We definitely have better drug choices and the definitions of mental illness are certainly improving.)
2. Banking of human organs; artificial culture of tissues; universal extension of preventative medicine.  (Good calls.)
3. Life expectancy 88 for women 80 for men in US and many other countries, world average 70. (A little high on all, but in the ballpark. The male-female dichotomy has shrunk instead of expanded.)

World Politics
1. The big four: USA, USSR, China, India, India leader of the Asian Commonwealth from Iran to Malaya. (Bold, but not quite right. In 1956, it still wasn't obvious how well Germany and Japan would in the next fifty years. India is a leader in the developing world to be sure, but there is no Asian Commonwealth.)
2. All Central America coalesced into a single political unit. (Swing and a miss.)

Science, Industry, Technology
1. Maximum work week in US and Canada: 20 hours. (Don't we wish?)
2. Top industry: Leisure. (Not as big as oil or food production.)
3. US and USSR have manned satellites and have reached the Moon. (Yes on the manned satellites, only the US made it to the Moon with a manned expedition.)
4. Seas mined in earnest for rare elements and food. (Certainly more than in 1956, but not as much as many people hoped. Petroleum isn't that rare. Yet.)
5. Desalted sea water used for irrigation and industrial purposes. (Some, but not much.)
6. Direct conversion of sunlight into power and synthesis of food on commercial scales. (Yes on solar power and there are a lot of synthetic ingredients in food.)
7. Atomic power in world-wide use. (Yes.)
8. Long-distance travel almost entirely by air at supersonic speeds. (Yes to almost all, supersonic, not so much.)
9. Privately owned helicopters commonly used, heliports on every large building. (It's close enough to get the Flying Cars HELLZ YEAH label. Regular readers will know how I feel about discussing reality and flying cars in the same sentence.)
10. Plastic glass and light metals common in building construction. (True enough.)
11. Moving sidewalks common. (That's a swing and a miss.)
12. Shortwave cooking common. (We call it microwave. Definitely a hit.)
13. Great increase in telescope range, boundaries of universe still unknown. (Exactly right.)

 Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE! More from Amazing Stories, a couple of pointy headed intellectuals take their shot, and one of them gives a description of a vague thing that could just be the Internet.  That's a terrific guess from the vantage point of 1956.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!

19 February 2013

What life will be like... in the year 2001!

Predictor: Sid Caesar, host of the TV variety hit Your Show of Shows
The Pocket TV will be so common people will take it for granted...
Einstein's theory of relativity will be understood by every schoolchild because he will see it on his pocket TV in the helicopter on his way to school.

Predictor: John Cameron Swayze, anchorman and spokesman*
No major war between 1956 and 2001...
Light-weight low priced private air transport...
Cities disperse, the slums will disappear...
 
Reality: The modern high end cell phone is kinda sorta like a pocket TV, though streaming a TV program is an expensive way to use one. Transistor radios hit the market in 1955, so the idea of miniaturization is definitely in the public mind. Also in the public mind in the mid 1950s was that "Einstein's theory of relativity" was the most difficult concept ever devised by man. It is not yet a concept understood by schoolchildren.

Swayze was right about no major war. The middle part of the century was big on the idea that cities were intolerable and had to be abolished. We kinda got over that.

 And then we have the helicopter school bus and "light-weight low priced private air transport", which are both roundabout ways to say... Flying Cars HELLZ YEAH!

It is the express policy of this blog never to discuss reality and flying cars at the same time. So it is written and so it shall be. Amen.

* Some younger readers might need more explanation of who John Cameron Swayze was. He was one of the original anchormen for evening news broadcasts, but by the time I was growing up, he was the spokesman for Timex watches, the commercials that brought us the deathless tagline "It takes a licking and keeps on ticking". Wikipedia says that John Cameron Swayze was a sixth cousin to the now more famous Patrick Swayze, both deceased. I'm not as close to my cousins as some other people are, but "sixth cousin" seems a polite way of saying "not really related at all".

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE! Sure, we start the week with predictions about TV, war, city life and flying cars, but tomorrow we get to what really matters: fashion and baseball.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!

18 February 2013

Announcing... Amazing Stories Week!

Regular readers will know I have a daily routine Monday through Friday for the predictions, but I came across a great discovery this weekend and I'm going to throw a monkey wrench into the monotonous machine, based on First Rule of Blogging (H.): It's my blog and you are not the boss of me!

My friend Alan Ponder has a terrific collection of old science fiction magazines, the ones printed on pulp paper, known as "the pulps" to their fans. In 1956, Amazing Stories turned 30 and devoted the last few pages of the April issue to predictions from people in many fields of what the world would look like in 2001.

In other words, a big old goldmine for this blog.

I'll be printing the predictions from today to next Monday, starting out with what easily can be considered the wackiest from a guy who made a real effort to be odd and was taken seriously by many people of the time.

It's hard for me to give an modern example to the young people of what he was like. There are people trying to be outrageous for the sake of outrage now, many of them political pundits. But this guy was very different and he had some talent, something most pundits lack completely.
 

Prediction: I believe that art and science will have merged by 2001...

The secret of this harmony can be seen today in cosmic radiation... Beauty is mathematical too - I refer you to the works of Bach - and the beauty of the logarithmic curve of the rhinceros horn, with its repetition in the internal sedillas of the cauliflower can be seen by the aware eye of today and will been seen, and acted upon, by the awakened artists of 2001...

By 2001, such things will have lost their rigidity and gained, instead, have found the unity that is found in cosmic radiation, the cauliflower and the rhinoceros horn.

They will have realized the secret of life, of art, and of power, is viscosity.

Predictor: Salvador Dali, in the 30th anniversary of Amazing Stories, April 1956

Reality check: In the interest of full disclosure, I concede that I did a Dadaist editing job on this famous surrealist's prose. I only published every third sentence in his three paragraph tour de force, but also added his final sentence, the first mention of "viscosity".

Some readers might say, "But, Professor! You shouldn't edit someone's words in such a strange and didactic way. This statement has lost all meaning."

Let me make my case in two parts.

Part 1. See the First Rule of Blogging (H.).

2. I swear on the Collected Works of Leonhard Euler that absolutely no meaning has been removed from Mr. Dali's statement. True, many words have gone missing and yes, those words formed sentences with subjects and verbs. But this edited version makes every bit as much sense as what he wrote and the editors of Amazing decided to publish. If you think this version is meaningless, you would not be convinced much by the full text.

Looking ahead one day... INTO THE FUTURE! The 57th anniversary celebration of Amazing Stories' 30th Anniversary continues, with visits from Sid Caesar and John Cameron Swayze.

Join me then... IN THE FUTURE!