2 January 2013

Birthday

Isaac Asimov b. 1920 (or not) died 4/6/1992 (definitely)

(won 1973 Nebula and Hugo for The Gods Themselves)

(won 1983 Hugo for Foundation’s Edge)

Asimov's exact birthday is unknown, sometime in late 1919 or early 1920. This is what he looked like in 1965 before he grew those muttonchops that became his signature look. 

Currently, I am only listing the Hugo and Nebula awards for novels. As I continue my research, I'll include awards for short works as well. As you can read over on his Wikipedia page, Asimov's best known work is probably the short story Nightfall. His Three Laws of Robotics are also still widely quoted. You remember them.

1. What goes up must come down.
2. Spinning wheel got to go round.
3. Talkin' 'bout your troubles is a crying sin.

Wait. I may have those wrong. Let me get back to you.

In the year 2000!

Prediction #1: There will probably be from 350,000,000 to 500,000,000 people in America and its possessions by the lapse of another century. Nicaragua will ask for admission to our Union after the completion of the great canal. Mexico will be next. Europe, seeking more territory to the south of us, will cause many of the South and Central American republics to be voted into the Union by their own people.”

Predictor: John Elfreth Watkins

Year of prediction:  1900 in The Ladies' Home Journal

Accuracy: Way off. The U.S. population did grow to about 300,000,000 by 2000, but we did not get any countries in Central America asking for admission and the great canal was dug in Panama, not Nicaragua. Watkins did not foresee the colonial age would peak and fade away.


Watkins made a set of 28 distinct predictions about the year 2000 in 1900. They were published in that great source of speculative fiction The Ladies' Home Journal. (?!?) Like all predictors worth their salt, he gets some stuff right and a lot of stuff wrong.  Still, his track record looking 100 years into THE FUTURE is significantly better than Heinlein's list of hunches about 2000 made in 1950. For the first half of this year and slightly beyond, Wednesday will be John Elfreth Watkins Day.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE! Arthur C. Clarke gets the first of his weekly moments in the spotlight, featuring his predictions for the Year 2000 on a 1964 British TV show.

Join me then... IN THE FUTURE!