30 May 2014

Birthdays
Blake Bashoff b. 1981 (Lost, Charmed, Minority Report)
Rachel Stirling b. 1977 (Doctor Who, Snow White and the Huntsman)
Omri Katz b. 1976 (Hocus Pocus, Eerie, Indiana, Adventure in Dinosaur City)
Darren E. Scott b. 1972 (The Tomorrow People, Almost Human, Smallville, The 4400, Andromeda, Jeremiah, Dark Angel)
Duncan Jones b. 1971 (director, Source Code, Moon)
John Ross Bowie b. 1971 (The Big Bang Theory, Dark Minions, Heroes, Charmed)
Idina Menzel b. 1971 (Frozen, Enchanted)
Mark Sheppard b. 1964 (Supernatural, Warehouse 13, Mysterious Island, Doctor Who, Xtinction: Predator X, Dollhouse, Battlestar Galactica, The Middleman, Bionic Woman [2007]. Jake 2.0, Deep Shock, Firelfly, Charmed, Megalodon, Lost Voyage, The Chronicle, Star Trek: Voyager, Sliders, M.A.N.T.I.S., The X-Files)
Kevin Eastman b. 1962 (writer, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles)
James McGowan b. 1960 (Bitten, Total Recall [2012], Warriors of Terra, Mutant X)
Ted McGinley b. 1958 (Wizards of Waverly Place, Space Case)
Colm Meaney b. 1953 (Alice, Stargate: Atlantis, Zenon: Z3, The Magical Legend of the Leprechauns, Star Trek: Deep Space Nine, Star Trek: The Next Generation)
Stephen Toblowsky b. 1951 (The Time Traveler’s Wife, Heroes, Stephen King’s Dead Zone, Lloyd in Space, The Day the World Ended, Roswell, Dead Last, Buffy, Groundhog Day, Memoirs of an Invisible Man, Spaceballs, The Philadelphia Experiment)
Michael Piller b. 1948 died 11/1/2005 (writer, Stephen King’s Dead Zone, Star Trek, Hard Time on Planet Earth)
Deanna Lund b. 1937 (Transylvania Twist, Superstition 2, Elves, The Incredible Hulk, Land of the Giants, Batman, Dimension 5)
Keir Dullea b. 1936 (Space Station 76, Alien Hunter, Witchblade, 2010, The Next One, Brain Waves, Brave New World, The Starlost, 2001: A Space Odyssey)
Ruta Lee b. 1935 (Power Rangers Lightspeed Rescue, Pterodactyl Woman from Beverly Hills, Mork & Mindy, Doomsday Machine, Twilight Zone, Adventures of Superman)
Clint Walker b. 1927 (The Serpent Warriors, Deadly Harvest, Snowbeast, Killdozer, Scream of the Wolf)
Hal Clement b. 1922 died 29 October 2003 (writer, Mission of Gravity, Star Light)
Franklin J. Schaffner b. 1920 died 2 July 1989 (director, The Boys from Brazil, Planet of the Apes)
Hugh Griffith b. 1912 died 14 May 1980 (Legend of the Werewolf, The Last Days of Man on Earth, Dr. Phibes Rises Again, The Abominable Dr. Phibes)
Mel Blanc b. 1908 died 10 July 1989 (over 1,000 credits, almost all voice work, most notable genre work, The Jetsons, Buck Rogers in the 25th Century, Duck Duck Dodgers in the 24½th Century, The Phantom Tollbooth)
Howard Hawks b. 1896 died 26 December 1977 (director [uncredited], The Thing from Another World)

 Long list with some big names today. Last year I put Colm Meaney in the Picture Slot, certainly iconic, and this year it's Keir Dullea from 2001: A Space Odyssey. I'll be honest and admit I didn't love 2001. My favorite Kubrick film is Dr. Strangelove and I don't even care what my second favorite is. That said, 2001 is every bit as important as Twilight Zone, Star Trek and Star Wars is in the history of sci-fi on film. This was a time when a studio committed to making a big budget "serious" sci-fi film that wasn't aimed at kids in any way. Of the sci-fi made before this, I would say Fahrenheit 451 also qualifies, with Truffaut having the same kind of cache as Kubrick. The difference between them looking back now from nearly a half century is that 2001 is still considered iconic and Fahrenheit 451 is largely forgotten.

Many happy returns to the living on the list and to the dead, thanks for all the memories.
  

In the year 2000!
 
Predictor: Edward Bellamy in his 1888 novel Looking Backward (2000 to 1887)

Prediction: On 30 May 1887, Julian West falls into a coma, only to awaken in the Boston of the year 2000.

Reality: I don't want to make the prediction section of the blog a Greatest Hits collection. The stuff after the birthday list should feel as fresh as possible every day. But some of the predictions I think bear repeating, like a couple tips of the hat to George Orwell each year and a growing list of stuff from Back to the Future II leading up to 2015, the year it is supposed to take place. Edward Bellamy's Looking Backward also gets this kind of treatment, in part because it spawned a rash of books that came up with their version of the future in response to Bellamy's success and because writers for years after, including Orwell and H.G. Wells and Jack London, listed Bellamy as an influence, though they weren't often kind. (The book has no plot, it's just a list of marvels the future will bring.)

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Saturday means another trip back to 1893, this time with somewhat understated facial hair.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!
 

26 March 2014

Birthdays
Haley Ramm b. 1992 (X-Men: The Last Stand, Ben 10: Race Against Time)
Keira Knightley b. 1985 (Never Let Me Go, Pirates of the Caribbean, Neverland, Star Wars: Episode I – The One we Don’t Talk About)
Luke Ford b. 1981 (The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, Hercules [2005])
Amy Smart b. 1976 (The Butterfly Effect, Starship Troopers)
Leslie Mann b. 1972 (Timecode)
Francis Lawrence b. 1971 (director, The Hunger Games:Catching Fire, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Constantine, I Am Legend)
Ed Wasser b. 1964 (Babylon 5, Sliders, Quantum Leap)
Johnny Crawford b, 1946 (Village of the Giants, The Space Children)
James Caan b. 1940 (The Lathe of Heaven, Alien Nation, Rollerball)
Alan Arkin b. 1934 (Gattaca, The Rocketeer, The Return of Captain Invincible)
Leonard Nimoy b. 1931 (Star Trek, The Big Bang Theory, Fringe, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, Futurama, Brave New World, The Lost World, The Outer Limits, Invasion of the Body Snatchers [1978], Twilight Zone, Them!, Zombies of the Stratosphere)
Strother Martin b. 1919 died 1 August 1980 (Sssssss, The Invaders, Lost in Space, Twilight Zone, World Without End, The Magnetic Monster)
Ed Peck b. 1917 died 12 September 1992 (The Incredible Hulk, Willy Wonka & the Chocolate Factory, Land of the Giants, I Dream of Jeannie, Star Trek, The Invaders)
Sterling Hayden b. 1916 died 23 May 1986 (Venom, The Last Days of Man on Earth, The Starlost)
Edward Bellamy b. 1850 died 22 May 1898 (author, Looking Backward, 2000-1887)

Today's birthday list does not lack for star power, but putting anyone but Leonard Nimoy in the Picture Slot would be somewhere between quirky and obtuse. If the competition was for favorite actor, I'd be torn between Sterling Hayden and Strother Martin, but not for their roles in genre films. And the real movie stars here, Kiera Knightley, James Caan and Alan Arkin, should also get a mention, though again their most famous roles are not in science fiction and fantasy. And one more solo mention should go to Edward Bellamy for his Looking Backward: 2000-1887 book, a major hit in his day that spawned a flurry of speculative fiction at the end of the 19th Century.

Many happy returns of the day to all the living on the list, and to the dead, thanks for all the memories.

Movies released
How to Train Your Dragon, released 2010

 

Predictor: Nate Silver on his 538.com website

Prediction: The Republicans are poised to make gains in the United States Senate. The best case scenario would be a gain of eleven seats for the GOP the worst case would be losing two. The most likely scenarios are a loss of five or six seats. The Democrats would keep control with five losses, it would be a 50-50 Senate if the GOP picks up six.

Reality: It's very early. I do poll aggregation as a hobby and Nate Silver is a professional, but I did have a better track record than his in both 2008 and 2012. So here's my take.

1. Nothing sensible can be said until the candidates are decided. I won't start publishing numbers on my math blog until all the primaries are through. Silver's "professionalism" is a disadvantage for him, because his paymasters require a prediction long before there's enough data to do anything but be a pontification pundit.

2. Nate thinks he's better than the companies that do the polling. I don't think he's better than them and I don't think I'm better than them. There are clearly companies that did very badly in 2012, most notably the Republican pollsters, whose work was somewhere between wishful thinking and outright fraud. But as a teacher, I always hope students can learn, and the public humiliation taken by the pollsters in 2012 might teach some of them to do better.

3. It is a midterm. Low Democratic turnout in the midterm elections is a ridiculously consistent long-term trend. I won't say Republican gains are inevitable, but they are fairly likely.

4. Polls take the current temperature, they do not predict the future. I don't consider my numbers to be "forecasts" until about a week out from the election, and I don't set my numbers until I see the last available polls. Another difference between Silver and me is I wouldn't make a prediction right now, even one with a wide margin of error like Silver's. Still, he's called his shot, so let's put them in numbers and check back after November 4.

Best case for Democrats: 58-42 (+2 D)
Most likely cases: 51-49 Dems  (-5 D) or 50-50 Dems (-6 D)
Best case for the Republicans: 55-45 GOP (-11 D)

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

More from our Thursday regular Lee de Forest, predicting in his specialty, radio and television broadcast technology.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!
 

15 October 2013

Birthdays
Dominic West b. 1969 (300, Punisher: War Zone)
Tanya Roberts b. 1955 (Beastmaster, Sheena)
Virginia Leith b. 1932 (The Brain That Wouldn’t Die)
Mark Lenard b. 1924 died 11/22/1996 (Star Trek)

I was very close to having Virginia Leith in her iconic starring role in The Brain That Wouldn't Die in the Picture Slot, but I had to go with Mark Lenard, at least for this first year. Besides playing Sarek multiple times, he also is one of the few actors to play three different alien species on Star Trek, a Vulcan, a Romulan and a Klingon.

Many happy returns to the living on this list.

In the Year 2000!

Prediction:  October 15: Muster Day. All able bodied 21 year olds are called into the workforce and all 45 year olds are allowed to retire

Predictor: Looking Backward:2000-1887, Edward Bellamy, published 1888

Reality: Ah yes, retirement at 45, a chance to enjoy a few good years in peace before you died from the influenza or tuberculosis. I'm actually only being a little bleak here, as a 45 year old in 1890 was expected to live average to about 70. Now, if a man makes it to 45, the average life expectancy is to make it to 80.

Bellamy wrote about a socialist utopia that took place without any violent struggle. It seems unbelievable to us, but we should recall Mr. Bellamy never had the chance to listen to AM talk radio or read Ayn Rand, so he was oblivious to how vehement the opposition to his ideas would remain.

Looking one day ahead...  INTO THE FUTURE!

Yet another exact date, this time for the start of a bold mission into interstellar space in 1997 that doesn't turn out so well. 

Join us then...  IN THE FUTURE!

12 September 2013

 Birthdays
Alfie Allen b. 1986 (Game of Thrones)
Emmy Rossum b. 1986 (The Day After Tomorrow)
Hans Zimmer b. 1957 (Batman Begins, Pirate of the Caribbean, Inception, Man of Steel)
Joe Pantoliano b. 1951 (The Matrix)
Ian Holm b. 1931 (Lord of the Rings, Alien)
Freddie Jones b. 1927 (Dune, Krull)
Stanislaw Lem b. 1921 died 27 March 2006 (Solaris, The Futurological Congress)
Edward Binns b.1916 died 4 December 1990 (Twilight Zone)

While Ms. Rossum is certainly cute enough to get the Picture Slot, she only has the one role in a genre movie, so instead I lead with a picture of the author Stanislaw Lem. It does all start with the writing.

Many happy returns of the day to the living.

Prediction: 12 September, 2000: Julian West and Edith Leete listen to the 5:00 pm concert in Boston, live artists conveyed by telephone.

Predictor: Looking Backward:2000-1887 by Edward Bellamy, published 1888

Reality:  Bellamy writes his story after the invention of the telephone but before the invention of radio. Musicians in various locations are playing twenty four hours a day. There is a German chocolate postcard that extrapolates on this idea, adding a projected movie as well.

It can’t be hard to create full employment , but I don’t envy the guys playing Souza at 3:00 a.m.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Yet another exact date, this time from a TV show that first aired in 1975.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!

30 May 2013

Birthdays

Duncan Jones b. 1971
Mark Sheppard b. 1964
Colm Meaney b. 1953
Michael Piller b. 1948 died 11/1/2005

Jones is a director, Source Code and Moon his best known genre work. Sheppard is an actor and played recurring roles on Battlestar Galactica and Dollhouse.  Piller did a lot of writing for the Star Trek franchise and Meaney gets the picture slot for being the best known of all these guys.

Condolences to the family and friends of Piller, who died so young and many happy returns of the day to Jones, Sheppard and Meaney.

Prediction: 30 May 1887: Julian West falls into a coma, only to waken in the year 2000

Predictor: Edward Bellamy, in his 1888 novel Looking Backward:2000-1887

Reality: Unlike Rip Van Winkle who awakens with a long beard, West goes into a kind of suspended animation and wakes with no atrophy or aging whatsoever. If you want to know why this is so, I'll put it in the comments since it's technically a spoiler.

I waited until this day to mention Bellamy because it was the first exact date in his book. It is a hugely influential work and we will soon have predictions from books that were considered "answer novels" to this from several writers. Both Jack London and H.G. Wells acknowledge being influenced by Bellamy and several of the predictions of John Elfreth Watkins sound very much like descriptions from Bellamy's writing. Likewise, some pictures from the French and German postcards depict ideas found in this novel.

Without giving too much away, Bellamy envisions a socialist utopia but really does not discuss any struggles that would have had to take place to bring this paradise about. Almost all books influenced by his make the understandable artistic decision of actually having a plot, something Looking Backward lacks. We will actual predictions from the book later in the year.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE! 



We interrupt our regular Friday postcards with two names that have been known to make grown men shudder and wince in pain... Gerry and Sylvia Anderson!

You thought you could avoid them, that they were gone forever, didn't you? Foolish human.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!