26 February 2013

In the Year 2000!

Prediction: The most important military fact of this century is that there is no way to repel an attack from outer space.

Predictor: Robert A. Heinlein in 1950

Reality: Heinlein isn't talking about being invaded by aliens, but instead the idea that outer space is the ultimate high ground. Hard to argue with this, but back when we thought our main rivals were the Soviets, both sides were reluctant to put weapons in space, at least weapons they were willing to publicize.

Why should this prediction get the Sensible Heinlein? Well, there are scientists now talking about having a meteorite defense system, not the worst idea ever. And also, I wanted to save The Ridiculous Heinlein for this next prediction from the same essay.

Prediction: It is utterly impossible that the United States will start a "preventive war." We will fight when attacked, either directly or in a territory we have guaranteed to defend.

Reality: Lovely sentiment, Bob, but not backed up by reality. We faked an attack to get more deeply involved in Vietnam. Neither Grenada or Panama attacked us, but we still invaded. Nicaragua didn't attack, where we merely mined their harbors and funded armed rebels.

If I was getting all "prediction lawyer" about it, I could defend Heinlein from the worst counterexample of all, Iraq, by noting it happened after his prediction date of 2000.

I could, but I won't. Heinlein the hard-headed realist looks like an idiot jingoist and a Pollyanna on this one, so I match this prediction with the picture of him wearing a couch cover as a sports jacket.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE! The return of John Elfreth Watkins, he of the non-ironic soul patch, who talks about the future of warfare as well, but makes a lot more sense.

Seriously, I loves me some John Elfreth Watkins.

 
Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!