Friday, May 23, 2014
23 May 2014
Devin Douglas Drewitz b. 1989 (Smallville, X-Men 2, Taken, Jeremiah, Dark Angel)
D.J. Cotrona b. 1980 (From Dusk Till Dawn [TV], G.I. Joe: Retaliation)
H. Jon Benjamin b. 1966 (The Venture Bros, Lucy: Daughter of the Devil)
Melissa McBride b. 1965 (The Walking Dead, The Mist, American Gothic, Mutant Species)
Patricia and Cyb Barnstable b. 1951 (Quark)
Joan Collins b. 1933 (Star Trek, Faerie Tale Theatre, Future Cop, The Fantastic Journey, Space: 1999, Batman)
Barbara Barrie b. 1931 (Tucker’s Witch, The Invaders, Twilight Zone)
James Blish b. 1921 died 29 July 1975 (won 1959 Hugo for A Case Of Conscience)
Scatman Crothers b. 1910 died 22 November 1986 (Twilight Zone: The Movie, Deadly Eyes, Zapped!, The Shining, The Incredible Hulk, Kolchak: The Night Stalker, Bewitched)
Not a long list today and it betrays at least one of my quirks. I don't count work in animation in general, but I make an exception for The Venture Bros., one of my favorite shows of any kind this century. James Blish got the Picture Slot last year, but this year it goes to Joan Collins from her well-known role on Star Trek, here pictured with an uncredited Canadian actor.
I kid. I'm a kidder.
Many happy returns to all the living on the list and to the dead, thanks for all the memories.
Prediction: We will be using 600 billion gallons of water a day by 1984 in U.S.
Reality: Water usage peaked in 1980 at around 400 billion gallons per day, give or take 30 billion, In the mid 1980s, it was down to 370 billion gallons ± 30 billion.
Numerically, this prediction really stinks and it shows Ehrlich's big weakness, the love for the worst case scenario. He expected water usage to double from the late 1960s to the mid 1980s, when in reality it went up about 10%. He never assumes there will be any technological progress and that growth rates will never stabilize or shrink. The reduction in growth rates has been the big story of the past half century.
This brings us once again to the current day analogy. If an "expert" like Ehrlich could have been so wrong about the effects of population growth, can't the eggheads who warn about climate change be just as wrong? It is my assumption that the answer is yes, they could be. But it is also possible that they are on the money or even erring on the conservative side.
The big difference I see now is the level of contempt the right wing has for any environmental concerns. When Ehrlich wrote The Population Bomb, Lake Erie was a dead zone, but government and industry working together made improvements and the fishing industry returned. Now, climate change is threatening Lake Erie just as much as pollution did back in the 1960s. Will business and government work together again, or will the interests of the fossil fuel industry trump everything else? I wish I could be an optimist. Reading the clumsy pessimism of Paul Ehrlich should give me cause for hope, but I get this nagging feeling that this time, it's worse.
Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!
Facial hair? Oh, yes. And a 19th Century first name I have never before. And a prediction to boot!
Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!