Friday, March 28, 2014
28 March 2014
Gareth David-Lloyd b. 1981 (Warehouse 13, Red Faction: Origins, Torchwood, Doctor Who)
Richard Kelly b. 1975 (writer/director, The Box, Southland Tales, Donnie Darko)
Nick Frost b. 1972 (The World’s End, Snow White and the Huntsman, Paul, Hyperdrive, Shaun of the Dead)
Vince Vaughn b. 1970 (The Watch, Fred Claus, The Cell, The Lost World: Jurassic Park)
Brett Ratner b. 1969 (director, X-Men: The Last Stand)
Darcy Laurie b. 1966 (Arrow, Continuum, Supernatural, Fringe, V, Battlestar Galactica, Kyle XY, Stephen King’s Dead Zone, Stargate SG-1, The Chronicles of Riddick, Jeremiah, Twilight Zone, Dark Angel, The Chronicle, Atomic Train, Poltergeist: The Legacy, The X-Files, Highlander: The Final Dimension, The Crow: Stairway to Heaven)
Chris Barrie b. 1960 (Red Dwarf, Lara Croft)
Reba McEntire b. 1955 (Tremors)
Mike Newell b. 1942 (director, Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire)
A short list today and everyone is alive. In my mind, the Picture Slot choices was a Battle of the Brits, either Rimmer from Red Dwarf or Nick Frost, probably a shot from Shaun of the Dead. The third possibility was Reba McIntire from her one genre role in Tremors, still one of my favorite monster movies.
Many happy returns to all the living on the list.
G.I. Joe:Retaliation released, 2013
Predictor: Dr. Paul Ehrlich from the 1968 bestseller The Population Bomb
Prediction: A few degrees of heating causes the ocean levels to rise 250 feet.
Reality: I do not want to be accused of cherry-picking quotes to make Dr. Ehrlich look like an idiot. I went through the book looking for dates in the future from his 1968 vantage point and I put them on a list.
It's Dr. Ehrlich's sloppy work that makes him look like an idiot.
I am not so much a climate change skeptic as I am a prediction skeptic. I've seen so many examples of serious problems made to look unimportant and alarmist by bad numbers, sloppy research and overblown predictions. For an example, an often quoted number on the Internet is that the average life expectancy of former NFL players is 55. That statistic seemed extremely unlikely to me, so I did some math to check it back in 2012 and found no evidence that former pro football players had a significant difference compared to other men their age of how long they could expect to live. The data says they live slightly longer, and baseball players slightly shorter. Again not significant in any direction with the data sets I compiled, all of which were about size 100.
A lot of literate people I've met remember the name Paul Ehrlich, but very few recall how bad his research was.
Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!
We return to 1893 with more ideas about what the 20th Century would look like, this time sadly without any picture showing proud 19th Century facial hair.
Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!