Monday, September 23, 2013
23 September 2013
Anthony Mackie b. 1978 (The Adjustment Bureau, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter)
Alex Proyas b. 1963 (director, Dark City, I, Robot)
Jason Carter b. 1960 (Babylon 5)
Rosalind Chao b. 1957 (Star Trek: The Next Generation, Deep Space Nine)
Peter David b. 1956 (Star Trek, Babylon 5, Marvel Comics)
Mickey Rooney b. 1920 (Twilight Zone)
Walter Pidgeon b. 1897 died 25 September 1984 (Forbidden Planet)
Last Monday, the Picture Slot went to Anne Francis, so it is only fitting that a week later it goes to the man who played her dad in Forbidden Planet. My favorite work listed here is Dark City, but for my money Proyas hasn't made anything else as good as that very strange film.
Predictor: OMNI Future Alamanac, published 1982
Prediction: Since the Industrial Revolution, the amount of carbon dioxide has increased by 10%; increases have been noted even in remote areas of Hawaii. Many scientists believe that the amount of carbon dioxide in the air will double in the next fifty to seventy years.
Reality: The "remote areas of Hawaii" refers to the Mauna Loa Observatory, a very important observation station for carbon dioxide levels.
I have no idea where they got the 10% number since the Industrial Revolution number. It went from 320 to 350 parts per million (ppm) from the late 1950s to the late 1980s. That's 10% right there, so they way undershot that number.
On the other hand, it was at about 340 ppm when this was written and has climbed about 60 points in the last 30 years, while it only climbed about 30 points in the 30 previous years. Still, if we are counting 340 ppm as the baseline number in 1982, getting to twice that (680 ppm) by 2050 at the latest is not what this graph looks like at all.
Long story short, these numbers are all wacky. The pre-industrial levels of carbon dioxide are hard to measure since we have to use air samples trapped in ice, but the general agreement is between 200 and 300 ppm was normal back then. We are now at about 400 ppm, twice the low end of previous normal. It's going up steadily and the rate of increase is slowly increasing. (That's the second derivative for any mathy types who wander by.) We could easily be at 450 or maybe even 500 ppm by 2050, and that's not going to help, but 700 ppm is both unlikely and truly catastrophic.
I'm not a "climate skeptic" as the paid flunkies of the petroleum industry like to call themselves, but I do like people to get the numbers right, and these numbers aren't close.
Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!
Tuesdays belong to Isaac Asimov's predictions from 1964 about 2014. Tomorrow, he continues a speculation about architecture and goes completely off base.
Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!
Looking one day