Jeffrey Pierce b. 1971 (The Tomorrow People, The Sarah Connor Chronicles, S1m0ne)
Harry Gregson-Williams b. 1961 (Shrek, X-Men Origins: Wolverine, The Chronicles of Narnia, The Borrowers)
Steve Buscemi b. 1957 (Armageddon, Spy Kids 2 and 3, The Island)
Christopher Plummer b. 1929 (Up, Dracula 2000, Twelve Monkeys, Wolf, Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country, Dreamscape, Somewhere in Time)
Dick Van Dyke b. 1925 (Night at the Museum, Chitty Chitty Bang Bang, Mary Poppins)
Don Taylor b. 1920 died 29 December 1998 (director, Island of Dr. Moreau, Damien: Omen II, The Final Countdown, Escape from the Planet of the Apes)
Three household names on our list of birthday boys today, but not best known for their work in genre. The Picture Slot goes to Christopher Plummer as the Klingon general Chang, a performance so over the top even Bill Shatner and Ricardo Montalban would have to say, "Chris, buddy... sometimes less is more."
Many happy returns to all the living and to the late Don Taylor, thanks for all the cheesy movies.
Predictor: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita at a TED Talk in 2009
Prediction: By the end of 2010, Iran will have enough weapons grade fuel to show the ability to build the bomb. There will be some political support in Iran for building it, but none for testing it. Also by the end of 2010, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad loses power.
Reality: The exact state of Iran's nuclear capability is hard to pin down. As of 2010, they had the ability to produce weapon grade uranium, but it wasn't clear they had made any and they have never announced the production of a bomb. Ahmadinejad was still in office until 2013. Bueno de Mesquita started the talk by saying game theory methods got stuff right 90% of the time. The first prediction was correct, the two about "political support" are hard to test and the one about Ahmadinejad didn't come true. Looks like about 50% right to me.
Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!
Saturday is our day to go back to 1893 to see what folks then thought was in store for the 20th Century.
Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!
One out of 4 is 50%? I thought you were a mathemagician.
ReplyDeleteAll that aside, it takes a pretty tough guy to rivet an eyepatch on. Even the Governor stops short of that.
You are right, the rivets are extreme. Even without an eye in the socket, it's going to produce fluid and need to be cleaned. I wonder if there's some sort of velcro attachment we just can't see.
DeleteGame theory does not get things right 90% of the time, in fact much of it has become so arcane when applied beyond its initial use the practitioners might as well be alchemists.
DeleteYeah, I'm a mathematician and I love John von Neumann's work, but claiming 90% correct is not supportable.
DeleteMattH
However, Game Theory, as in Scott Miller, were simply awesome. I would say that that version of Game Theory got it right well over 90% of the time.
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