5 March 2015

 Birthdays
Jake Lloyd b. 1989 (Star Wars-Episode I: Don’t Make Me Type the Name, Apollo 11)
Tania Saulnier b. 1982 (Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief, Slither, Supernatural, Smallville, Poltergeist: The Legacy)
Hanna Alstrom b. 1981 (Real Humans)
Samantha Thomson b. 1981 (Primer)
Jolene Blalock b. 1975 (Legend of the Seeker, Starship Troopers 3: Marauder, Star Trek: Enterprise, Stargate SG-1, Jason and the Argonauts [TV], Good vs Evil)
Riki Lindhome b. 1979 (Big Bang Theory, Heroes, Buffy)
Kevin Cotteleer b. 1975 (Agent Carter, The Event, Men in Black II)
Eva Mendes b. 1974 (The Spirit, Holy Motors, Ghost Rider, Mortal Kombat: Conquest [TV])
Matt Lucas b. 1974 (Alice in Wonderland [2010], Krod Mandoon and the Flaming Sword of Fire, The Wind in the Willows [2006], Shaun of the Dead, Captain V)
Lisa Robin Kelly b. 1970 died 15 August 2013 (Charmed, Poltergeist: The Legacy, The X Files)
Paul Blackthorne b. 1969 (Arrow, Warehouse 13, A Christmas Carol [2009], The Dresden Files)
David Palffy b. 1969 (Blade: The Series, Bloodsuckers, Stargate SG-1, Andromeda, Jeremiah, House of the Dead, Replicant, The Crow: Stairway to Heaven, The New Addams Family, NightMan, Millennium, The X Files)
John Fawcett b. 1968 (director, Orphan Black, Bitten, Lost Girl, The Dresden Files, Blade: The Series, Mutant X, Xena, Ginger Snaps, Space Cases)
Aasif Mandvi b. 1966 (The Last Airbender, Jericho, Spider-Man 2)
Jonathan Penner b. 1962 (The Tick, Coneheads)
David Fury b. 1959 (writer/actor, Fringe Terra Nova, Dr. Horrible’s Sing Along Blog, Lost, Angel, Buffy)
Talia Balsam b. 1959 (Early Edition, Tales from the Darkside, The Supernaturals)
Adriana Barraza b. 1956 (The Strain, Thor, Drag Me to Hell)
Penn Jillette b. 1955 (Babylon 5, Sabrina, the Teenage Witch, VR.5, Lois & Clark)
Michael Warren b. 1946 (Buffy, Sliders, Invasion [1997 TV movie], Early Edition, Time Trax, Tales from the Darkside)
Murray Head b. 1946 (Gawain and the Green Knight)
Samantha Eggar b. 1939 (The Astronaut’s Wife, Mann & Machine, Star Trek: The Next Generation, Demonoid: Messenger of Death, The Brood, Doctor Doolittle [1967])
Fred Williamson b. 1938 (Zombie Apocalypse: Redemption, Knight Rider [2009], Vegas Vampires, From Dusk Till Dawn, Warriors of the Wasteland, Warriors of the Lost World, 1990: The Bronx Warriors, Star Trek)
Dean Stockwell b. 1936 (The Dunwich Horror [1970 and 2009], Battlestar Galactica, Stargate SG-1, Star Trek: Enterprise, Phenomenon: The Lost Archives, CQ, They Nest, Sinbad: The Battle of the Dark Knights, The Langoliers, Lois & Clark, Quantum Leap, The Twilight Zone [1989 and 1962], Dune, The Boy with Green Hair)
Dawn Richard b. 1936 (I Was a Teenage Werewolf)
Paul Sand b. 1935 (Sliders, Sabrina, the Teenage Witch, The X Files, Eerie, Indiana, Quantum Leap, Twilight Zone [1987], The Legend of Sleepy Hollow [1980], Wonder Woman, Once Upon a Brothers Grimm, Bewitched)
James Sikking b. 1934 (Morons from Outer Space, Star Trek III: The Search for Spock, Outland, Capricorn One, The Incredible Hulk, The Bionic Woman, Man From Atlantis, The Terminal Man, Six Million Dollar Man, Escape from the Planet of the Apes, The Invaders, My Favorite Martian, The Outer Limits)
Nicholas Smith b. 1934 (The Ghouls, Frankenstein and the Monster from Hell, Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde [1973 TV], The Champions, Doctor Who, Pathfinders to Mars)
Jack Cassidy b. 1927 died 12 December 1976 (Bewitched)
James Noble b. 1922 (Elidor, Faerie Tale Theatre)
Virginia Christine b. 1920 died 24 July 1996 (The Invaders, Billy the Kid Versus Dracula, Twilight Zone, Invasion of the Body Snatchers, Adventures of Superman, The Mummy’s Curse)
Ursula Reit b. 1914 died 9 November 1998 (Willy Wonka & the Chocolate Factory)
Rex Harrison b. 1908 died 2 June 1990 (Doctor Dolittle [1967], The Ghost and Mrs. Muir [1947], Blithe Spirit)

Notes from the birthday list.
1. The Picture Slot. In previous years i used Dean Stockwell and Jolene Blalock. Since I am trying not to repeat myself, as much as I hate the movie, I have to admit Jake Lloyd as Anakin is iconic. Other names are well known, but I'm going with this guy this year.

2. Spot the Canadians! There are three. They are spottable. Knock yourself out.

3. Nepotism or not? Talia Balsam, Roger Sterling's wive on Mad Men, is Martin Balsam's daughter. Murray Head is the older brother of Anthony Stewart Head. Jack Cassidy was married to Shirley Jones and is the father of David Cassidy and Shaun Cassidy. I'm not sure how much of a help to their careers these family relationships were.

4. Gone too soon. Speaking of Jack Cassidy, he died in a fire in his apartment, assumed to be started by a dropped cigarette. Lisa Robin Kelly, best know as the older sister on That's 70s Show, died in rehab.

5. Wait... he's alive? James Noble is best known as the governor on Benson. I clicked on his name on imdb.com because I recognized his picture and decided to check his credits. He played the governor on Benson. I was surprised both at how old he was and that he was still alive. Good on ya , Mr. Noble and many happy returns.

Many happy returns to all the living on the list and to the dead, thanks for all the memories.

Predictor: The New York Times, 5 November, 1932, the Saturday before Election Day

Prediction: The re-election of President Hoover with at least 270 votes in the electoral college, four in excess of a majority, is predicted in a statistical study of vote percentages in several states, based on a poll taken by the Hearst publications.

Reality: FDR won the electoral college 472 to 59, and the popular vote by 7,000,000 when the total votes were less than 40,000,000. In other words, this one wasn't close. Modern methods should avoid this kind of screw-up, but Gallup in 2012 were sure the turnout would be more like the midterm in 2010 than the general election in 2008 and predicted Romney over Obama. Then again, Obama beat Romney, he didn't obliterate him, and better polling companies than Gallup had Obama leading all the way.

Seriously, not many companies go from the gold standard to crap and survive, but that description fits Gallup to a tee these days. If there weren't people who want to be lied to, Gallup would dry up and blow away.


 Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Yet another dip into H.G. Wells' book Anticipations.

Join is then... IN THE FUTURE!

  

26 March 2014

Birthdays
Haley Ramm b. 1992 (X-Men: The Last Stand, Ben 10: Race Against Time)
Keira Knightley b. 1985 (Never Let Me Go, Pirates of the Caribbean, Neverland, Star Wars: Episode I – The One we Don’t Talk About)
Luke Ford b. 1981 (The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, Hercules [2005])
Amy Smart b. 1976 (The Butterfly Effect, Starship Troopers)
Leslie Mann b. 1972 (Timecode)
Francis Lawrence b. 1971 (director, The Hunger Games:Catching Fire, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Constantine, I Am Legend)
Ed Wasser b. 1964 (Babylon 5, Sliders, Quantum Leap)
Johnny Crawford b, 1946 (Village of the Giants, The Space Children)
James Caan b. 1940 (The Lathe of Heaven, Alien Nation, Rollerball)
Alan Arkin b. 1934 (Gattaca, The Rocketeer, The Return of Captain Invincible)
Leonard Nimoy b. 1931 (Star Trek, The Big Bang Theory, Fringe, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, Futurama, Brave New World, The Lost World, The Outer Limits, Invasion of the Body Snatchers [1978], Twilight Zone, Them!, Zombies of the Stratosphere)
Strother Martin b. 1919 died 1 August 1980 (Sssssss, The Invaders, Lost in Space, Twilight Zone, World Without End, The Magnetic Monster)
Ed Peck b. 1917 died 12 September 1992 (The Incredible Hulk, Willy Wonka & the Chocolate Factory, Land of the Giants, I Dream of Jeannie, Star Trek, The Invaders)
Sterling Hayden b. 1916 died 23 May 1986 (Venom, The Last Days of Man on Earth, The Starlost)
Edward Bellamy b. 1850 died 22 May 1898 (author, Looking Backward, 2000-1887)

Today's birthday list does not lack for star power, but putting anyone but Leonard Nimoy in the Picture Slot would be somewhere between quirky and obtuse. If the competition was for favorite actor, I'd be torn between Sterling Hayden and Strother Martin, but not for their roles in genre films. And the real movie stars here, Kiera Knightley, James Caan and Alan Arkin, should also get a mention, though again their most famous roles are not in science fiction and fantasy. And one more solo mention should go to Edward Bellamy for his Looking Backward: 2000-1887 book, a major hit in his day that spawned a flurry of speculative fiction at the end of the 19th Century.

Many happy returns of the day to all the living on the list, and to the dead, thanks for all the memories.

Movies released
How to Train Your Dragon, released 2010

 

Predictor: Nate Silver on his 538.com website

Prediction: The Republicans are poised to make gains in the United States Senate. The best case scenario would be a gain of eleven seats for the GOP the worst case would be losing two. The most likely scenarios are a loss of five or six seats. The Democrats would keep control with five losses, it would be a 50-50 Senate if the GOP picks up six.

Reality: It's very early. I do poll aggregation as a hobby and Nate Silver is a professional, but I did have a better track record than his in both 2008 and 2012. So here's my take.

1. Nothing sensible can be said until the candidates are decided. I won't start publishing numbers on my math blog until all the primaries are through. Silver's "professionalism" is a disadvantage for him, because his paymasters require a prediction long before there's enough data to do anything but be a pontification pundit.

2. Nate thinks he's better than the companies that do the polling. I don't think he's better than them and I don't think I'm better than them. There are clearly companies that did very badly in 2012, most notably the Republican pollsters, whose work was somewhere between wishful thinking and outright fraud. But as a teacher, I always hope students can learn, and the public humiliation taken by the pollsters in 2012 might teach some of them to do better.

3. It is a midterm. Low Democratic turnout in the midterm elections is a ridiculously consistent long-term trend. I won't say Republican gains are inevitable, but they are fairly likely.

4. Polls take the current temperature, they do not predict the future. I don't consider my numbers to be "forecasts" until about a week out from the election, and I don't set my numbers until I see the last available polls. Another difference between Silver and me is I wouldn't make a prediction right now, even one with a wide margin of error like Silver's. Still, he's called his shot, so let's put them in numbers and check back after November 4.

Best case for Democrats: 58-42 (+2 D)
Most likely cases: 51-49 Dems  (-5 D) or 50-50 Dems (-6 D)
Best case for the Republicans: 55-45 GOP (-11 D)

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

More from our Thursday regular Lee de Forest, predicting in his specialty, radio and television broadcast technology.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!