1 February 2013

Birthday
Bill Mumy b. 1954

Next year I'll use a still from Babylon 5 for Mr. Mumy. Promise.

In the Year 2000!

Prediction: Humans, many now living underwater, will enjoy watching races where large fish are ridden like ponies.

Predictor: French postcards from 1900

Reality: Once again, the French have people in THE FUTURE acting like dicks. The exact species of the fish is hard to determine, but my best guess would be something related to barracuda.

Taming barracuda. Yeah, good luck with that. I'll watch from over here. No, on second thought I'll just wait until it's on the news, with the heart-wrenching interviews with the survivors.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE! In 1990, 82.4% of the world's population will be under 21 years old.

Hmmm, that could spell trouble. Run, Logan, run!

Join me then... IN THE FUTURE!

31 January 2013

 Birthday
Justin Timberlake b. 1981

He is better known for his music career and his best known film role is probably in The Social Network, but Justin has been in speculative fiction films including In Time and Southland Tales.

Prediction: Moon base CLAVIUS is completed in 1994

Predictor: Arthur C. Clarke from 2001: A Space Odyssey, published 1968

Reality: This was at the height of the excitement about landing on the moon. A lot of people were sure this was just the beginning.

Then again, a lot of people back then were sure that Joe Namath was just a loudmouth playboy and the New York Jets couldn't possibly beat the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III.

I know that as a nerd I am supposed to be excited about the conquest of space, but any place where you have to bring your own water and air because there is absolutely none to be had is not a good place to visit.

That place is actively trying to kill you. No water, no air... that's a dealbreaker in my book.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE! Yet another French postcard from 1900 where people are underwater and acting like jerks... in the Year 2000!

I'm beginning to detect a pattern.

Join me then... IN THE FUTURE!

30 January 2013

Birthdays
 
Christian Bale b. 1974
Gregory Benford b. 1941
(won 1981 Nebula for Timescape)

In the year 2000!

Prediction:  Trains will run two miles a minute, normally; express trains one hundred and fifty miles an hour. To go from New York to San Francisco will take a day and a night by fast express. There will be cigar-shaped electric locomotives hauling long trains of cars. Cars will, like houses, be artificially cooled. Along the railroads there will be no smoke, no cinders, because coal will neither be carried nor burned. There will be no stops for water. Passengers will travel through hot or dusty country regions with windows down.

Predictor: John Elfreth Watkins in The Ladies' Home Journal,  1900

Reality: Most trains do not travel 120 mph. Express trains like the bullet train in Japan can go faster than 150, but the United States doesn't have a high speed train system in place, so New York to San Francisco by train takes a lot longer than 24 hours.

But after those first three sentences, Watkins gets everything right. Air conditioned trains, no coal used and no stops for water, sealed compartments safe from the elements. On lots of trains, passengers don't have the option of opening windows at all.

When you think that this guy lived in the era of steam trains and horse drawn carriages, his predictions are very good.

Looking one day... INTO THE FUTURE!  Arthur C. Clarke looks ahead from 1968 to the completion of the first moon base in 1994.

Join me then... IN THE FUTURE!
 

29 January 2013

Prediction

1955 San Francisco replaces the cable cars with moving stairways.

from The Roads Must Roll by Robert A. Heinlein, published 1940

Reality: Sci fi writers love the moving sidewalk and moving road, but "moving stairway" is just another way of saying escalator.

Cable cars are cool. Escalators are dull. They would have to take up sidewalk space instead of road space. You think tourists are going to wait in line to ride escalators from Market Street to Fisherman's Wharf?

Ahh, hellz no, as we say in Oakland.

There is no way San Francisco would ever give up part of its unique flavor for such a boring idea.

Looking one day... INTO THE FUTURE!  

John Elfreth Watkins envisions a high speed railway system linking East Coast to West, making a trip from New York to San Francisco in less than 24 hours ... in the year 2000!

Join me then... IN THE FUTURE!

28 January 2013

Birthdays
Elijah Wood b. 1981
Ty Olsson b. 1974

Prediction
1993: Two connected computers, sharing one memory that communicates with both systems, will have the capability of defeating the human world champion at chess.

Predictor: OMNI Future Almanac in 1982

Reality: I love how specific the Future Almanac gets. This is from a list of projected computer milestones from 1990-2010.

They were a few years early and several computers short. World Champion Garry Kasparov beat the IBM computer Deep Blue in 1996, but the reprogrammed and redesigned computer won the rematch the next year with 2 wins, 1 loss and 3 draws in a six game match.

Having two computers sharing one memory is called parallel processing. Deep Blue was an example of massive parallel processing, with a total of 30 main general purpose microprocessors, each with 16 extra chips specifically designed to analyze positions on the chess board. This was great publicity for massive parallel processing, a method that sounds cool to the "bigger is better" part of our human brains, but one that doesn't always produce the optimal results in terms of speed and computing power when compared with other supercomputers.

If I was giving out grades, Deep Blue obviously gets an A and I'll give the prediction a B+ for getting the decade right and the detail that parallel processing would be used. I give Garry Kasparov full marks for sportsmanship for giving the computer a second chance, which is a better grade than IBM gets, since they dismantled Deep Blue after the 1997 victory, robbing Kasparov of a chance for vindication.

Looking one day... INTO THE FUTURE!  Robert A. Heinlein gets on the moving sidewalk bandwagon.

Wait, is it a moving sidewalk or is it a bandwagon?  Oh, you know what I mean.

Join me then... IN THE FUTURE!

27 January 2013

Birthday
Alan Cumming b. 1965

His best known work in sci-fi/fantasy genre is in the X-Men and Spy Kids series. My favorite work of his is still The Anniversary Party.
 

Prediction: 1963: Albania unleashes a nuclear attack on Italy and World War Three begins.

Predictor: Nevil Shute from On The Beach published 1957
The 1959 movie version moves the year to 1964.

Reality: Albania? Really?

Nuclear war was a very prevalent idea in the culture back in the middle of last century and this book was one of the early best sellers on the topic.

But Albania starts it? I mean seriously, Nevil, there's creativity and then there's just being goofy.

Looking one day... INTO THE FUTURE!

The Omni Future Almanac gets really specific about when a computer will be capable of beating the world champion human at chess.

Join me then... IN THE FUTURE!

26 January 2013

 Birthday

Philip José Farmer b. 1918 died 2/25/2009
(won 1972 Hugo for To Your Scattered Bodies Go)

Prediction: In 2012, young people would be listening to "new sounds from the computers" and no one would play instruments anymore.

Predictor: Archie Comics, 1972

Reality: The computer as jukebox is a real thing. Of course, a comic book artist in 1972 is a year before from the microprocessor revolution, so he can be forgiven for drawing the computer the size of washer-dryer combo. And of course, with the reality of tiny musical computer systems actually available in 2012, everyone should be wearing headphones, completely oblivious to the rest of the room. Maybe they are installed inside their helmets.

Fashion note: I love that IN THE FUTURE guys are wearing onesies and the goofy hat has made such a fantastic comeback as a fashion accessory for both men and women.

Thanks: Regular reader Leo Lincourt found this gem and sent it to me.  Thanks, Leo!

Looking one day... INTO THE FUTURE! Who starts World War Three? Why, Albania, of course. And when will it start? In that dreaded year IN THE FUTURE... 1963!

Join me then... IN THE FUTURE!