Birthday
Tim Blake Nelson b. 1964
Mr. Nelson was in Minority Report and The Incredible Hulk, so he deserves a mention on a sci-fi blog, but honestly, his role in O Brother Where Art Thou is the best casting decision of the first century of talking pictures. He was so wonderful and then he said...
"In the Jailhouse Now fellas, neighborhood of A"
and now that performance belongs to the gods.
Prediction: The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season (June 1 to November 30) will have between 12 and 20 named storms, with 16 being the most likely.
Predictors: Michael E. Mann, Michael Kozar and Sonya Miller
Reality: I promised a Jack London prediction yesterday in the coming attractions, but I found this more interesting, so the doom that awaits us in 1912 through 1932 will just have to wait a week.
This prediction can be tested on December 1 and I will be back to check in then. This is actual science, not science fiction, no matter what the people who say "global warming is a hoax" will try to tell you. I will get in touch with the predictors to see if they have a range for the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes (above 3.0) as well.
As a footnote to the predictions in the picture from last year, there were 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 2 of them major, so Dr. Gray undershot almost everything by about two thirds.
Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!
We get the last of the predictions from 1988 about the exciting future that awaits... in 2013!
Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!
the good doctor apparently learned to hedge his bet; 12 to 20 is a pretty hefty interval.
ReplyDeleteIf that's a 95% confidence interval, the standard deviation must be about 2. Don't know how large a sample is.
ReplyDeleteWOW. theisthe most spectacularly WRONG prediction ever!!!!
ReplyDeletewiki:
"The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was a well below average Atlantic hurricane season and the first since 1994 with no major hurricanes"