6 October 2013

Birthdays
Ioan Gruffudd b. 1973 (Fantastic Four)
Elisabeth Shue b. 1963 (Back to the Future II and III, Piranha 3-D)
David Brin b. 1950
(won 1984 Hugo and Nebula for Startide Rising)
(won 1988 Hugo for The Uplift War)

The sentence structure that does the best job of making me feel old is "You know who just turned 50?" In this case, it's the cute little star of Adventures in Babysitting. Tempus fugit, bitchez.

Besides the big awards, Brin also had one of his stories The Postman turned into a major motion picture. If you are having a hard time remembering it, that may be because it starred Kevin Costner.

Many happy returns of the day to everyone on our list today.
 

Predictor: T.V. Powderly, labor leader, asked for predictions about 1993 on the occasion of the 1893 Columbian Exhibition.

Predictions (and reality): The population will grow from 63,000,000 to 300,000,000. (actual in 1993: 258,000,000, not a bad guess.)

All children educated to use tools. (Shop class. Do we still have mandatory shop class?)

On government, initiative and referendum will prevail. (Definitely more than in 1893, but this once progressive system will be hijacked by the interests of corporations and the rich.)

Labor organizations will have disappeared, for they will no longer be necessary. (You can't fool me, I'm working for the union. Actually, he's right about unions dwindling and wrong about them being unnecessary.)

Railroads, water courses, telegraphs, telephones and pneumatic tubes will all be owned by the government. (Obviously a commie who wants to round us up and shoot us. I know because some guy on Twitter told me that's what all commies want. Still, he mentioned pneumatic tubes.Yay!)

Cremation will take the place of burying the dead. Living will be healthier, for the earth will not be poisoned by the internment of infection. (Hmm, not so much. We are healthier by far, but not because we gave up burying the dead. We actually started curing diseases, most notably tuberculosis, which was the number two killer just behind influenza, which we have contained remarkably with vaccines. In 1893, "curing disease" was crazy talk, only claimed by charlatans.)

The contents of the sewers will no longer flow into rivers and streams. (This is true in some places. Others, not so much.)

There will be no very rich or very poor. Under such conditions, prisons and poorhouses will decline and divorces will not be considered necessary. (That's a big zero for five. We no longer call them poor houses, but low income housing does still exist.) 

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Moving the weekly schedule around due to a couple of predictions from movies this week, Isaac Asimov's 1964 predictions get the Monday slot instead of the Tuesday this week.


Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!

5 October 2013

Birthdays
Jesse Eisenberg b. 1983 (Zombieland)
Ehren Kruger b. 1972 (writer, Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon)
Guy Pierce b. 1967 (Iron Man 3, Prometheus, The Time Machine)
Daniel Baldwin b. 1960 (Attack of the 50 Foot Woman, Vampires)
Neil De Grasse Tyson b. 1958 (Nova)
Clive Barker b. 1952 (Hellraiser)
Duncan Regehr b. 1952 (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine)
Karen Allen b. 1951 (Raiders of the Lost Ark)
Jeff Conaway b. 1950 died 27 May 2011 (Babylon 5)
Skip Homeier b. 1930 (Star Trek, Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea)
Donald Pleasence b. 1919 died 2 February 1995 (THX 1138, Halloween, Escape from New York)
John Hoyt b. 1905 died 15 September 1991 (The Twilight Zone, Star Trek)

A mix of actors and authors today. Yet again, we have a Babylon 5 actor who is already dead, a very unlucky show. Hoyt was the doctor in the pilot of Star Trek starring Jeffrey Hunter. Karen Allen certainly qualifies in the Cute Girl = Picture Slot, but I went with celebrity astrophysicist Neil De Grasse Tyson instead.

Many happy returns of the day to the living.
 
Movies released
Frankenweenie released, 2012

Prediction: One of the few survivors of the Great Disaster of October 5, 1947 tells, in a series of disjointed flashbacks, of the chaotic horror which engulfed New York City in the wake of an atomic attack which also destroyed most of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, if not the Earth.

Predictor: The Blast by Stuart Cloete, published in Collier's magazine, published in April 1947

Reality: This prediction makes me think about what the mindset must have been just after World War II. The Great War of 1914-18 was thought to be the last great conflagration, but a generation later there was an even bigger war and the consensus was that it was started by a madman. World War II ends with nuclear explosions, destruction so great it was hard to fathom. The United States was the only country with the technology, but no one thought that would last. If wars could only be started by madmen, Joseph Stalin was still around and portrayed by the media as a madman, and it wasn't hyperbole.

And if you weren't worried enough, magazines like LIFE and Collier's presented you with terrifying predictions and The New Yorker in 1946 published John Hersey's detailed account of the destruction of Hiroshima and the stories of six survivors.

I was born ten years after the war ended, and like all boomers I grew up with the knowledge of the nuclear stalemate, but the danger seemed remote. Considering this story comes out the same year as Heinlein's frantic warning, the danger must have felt a lot closer.


Once again, thanks to Paul Brians for his excellent database of fiction and essays about nuclear war.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Sunday usually belongs to Ray Bradbury's The Martian Chronicles, but we've had enough depressing stuff this weekend. Instead, we'll go back to 1893 and hear from labor leader T.V. Powderly. 

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!
 

4 October 2013

Birthdays
Ryan Lee b. 1996 (Super 8)
Alicia Silverstone b. 1976 (Batman & Robin)
Abraham Benrubi b. 1969 (Buffy the Vampire Slayer)
Liev Schreiber b. 1967 (The Last Days on Mars, X-Men Origins: Wolverine)
Christoph Waltz b. 1956 (The Green Hornet, The Zero Theorem)
Christopher Fairbank b. 1953 (The Fifth Element, Alien 3, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides)
Armand Assante b. 1949 (Judge Dredd)
Susan Sarandon b. 1946 (The Rocky Horror Picture Show, Cloud Atlas)
Anne Rice b. 1941 (Interview with a Vampire)
Horst Janson b. 1935 (Captain Kronos – Vampire Hunter)
Edward Judd b. 1932 died 24 February 2009 (First Men in the Moon)
Charlton Heston b. 1923 died 5 April 2008 (Soylent Green, Planet of the Apes, The Omega Man)

With the exception of Anne Rice, it's an all actor list today. I put up Charlton Heston in the Picture Slot not because I like him - I hated his politics and he was a terrible ham as an actor - but instead because he was willing to be in sci-fi movies before it was cool. While Star Trek and Star Wars are obviously the game changers when it comes to the success level you can expect with a sci-fi series, the Planet of the Apes franchise also was an important step forward in Hollywood's acceptance of the genre as a money-making machine.

Many happy returns of the day to all the living.
 

Prediction: By 1974, boxing has been made illegal. Instead human looking robots are the fighters.

Predictor: The Twilight Zone episode Steel, written by Richard Matheson, starring Lee Marvin, first aired 4 October 1963

Reality: First, if Charlton Heston overplayed nearly every role in his career, I give props to Lee Marvin for his ability to under-play. If you know the episode, his robot malfunctions and he goes into the ring himself in order to get paid. He's supposed to be a machine with one facial expression here, but you can still read a little bit of his pride, his hope and his dread even in this still photo.

As for reality, we haven't outlawed boxing and now it struggles to remain relevant compared to Ultimate Fighting, a set of rules that allows things like kicking, wrestling and hitting a person after they are on the ground.

If this prediction gets even partial points, it would be a couple of decades later that fighting robots would be popular, but they wouldn't look even remotely human.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

An exact date from a story in Collier's magazine that scared the bejeezus out of people in 1947.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!
 

Never to be Forgotten:Tom Clancy 1947-2013

It is the rare writer who can be universally acknowledged as the father of a large genre and Tom Clancy was that rare bird. There were plenty of spy novels before his and stories of military adventures as well, but Clancy's level of realistic technological detail set him apart and the "techno-thriller" was born. Many of his books star Jack Ryan as the main hero, though as he ages his son Jack Ryan Jr. becomes the intelligence agent and his father goes into politics. These many books are often collectively called the Ryanverse and many but not all describe events in the future from the standpoint of the publication date. As regular readers know, the bread and butter of this blog are predictions that have already passed or are in the foreseeable future, so expect to see labels "Tom Clancy" and "Ryanverse" used many times in the next few months. Thankfully, when it comes to the "Reality" afterword for predictions, Clancy didn't have many correct guesses as far as his calamities are concerned. I say thankfully because the only real event so far that could be described as Clancyesque is 11 September 2001.

Best wishes to the family and friends of Tom Clancy, who died on Tuesday. He will never be forgotten.

3 October 2013

Birthdays
Adair Tischler b. 1996 (Heroes, Dollhouse)
Lena Headey b. 1973 (Dredd, The Purge, Game of Thrones, The Sarah Connor Chronicles)
Rob Liefeld b. 1967 (author, Deadpool)
Clive Owen b. 1964 (Children of Men)
Madlyn Rhue b. 1935 died 16 December 2003 (Land of the Giants, Star Trek)
Alvin Toffler b. 1928 (author, Future Shock)
Gore Vidal b. 1925 died 31 July 2012 (author, Visit to a Small Planet, actor, Gattaca)
Harvey Kurtzman b. 1924 died 21 February 1993 (Mad magazine)
Charles Middleton b. 1874 died 22 April 1949 (Flash Gordon)

Interesting mix of actors and writers today, with two great villains from very different eras, Middleton as Ming the Merciless in the old Flash Gordon series and our Picture Slot pretty Lena Headey as Cersei Lannister.

Many happy returns to the living.
 

Predictor: H.G. Wells in the 1933 book The Shape of Things to Come

Prediction:  In many cases, the police deliberately manufactured evidence against criminals they had good reason to believe guilty, and perjured themselves unhesitatingly. (See Aubrey Wilkinson’s The Natural History of the Police Frame-Up, 1991)

Reality: As I have said before, The Shape of Things to Come is a very dark and cynical book. Police frame-ups clearly existed when he wrote this, so it can hardly be called "speculative fiction" with the exception of giving a future date for the publishing of a book. While there was no book of this title by any author published in 1991, the closest thing to a coincidence that would give Wells a point for this prediction is the James Ellroy novel L.A. Confidential was published in 1990.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

An exact date prediction from the original Twilight Zone series.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE! 

2 October 2013

Birthdays
Camilla Belle b. 1986 (10,000 BC, The Lost World: Jurassic Park)
Sting b. 1951 (Dune)
Persis Khambatta b. 1948 died 8/18/1998 (Star Trek: The Motion Picture)
Avery Brooks b. 1948 (Star Trek: Deep Space Nine)
Vernor Vinge b. 1944
(won 1993 Hugo for A Fire on the Deep)
(won 2000 Hugo for A Deepness in the Sky)
(won 2007 Hugo for Rainbow's End)
Jack Finney b. 1911 died 14 November 1995 (author, Invasion of the Body Snatchers)
Alex Raymond b. 1909 died 6 September 1956 (artist, Flash Gordon)
Willy Ley b. 1906 died 24 June 1969 (author, Adventure in Space)

I always like to see a mix of authors and actors on the birthday list. Since Stephen Collins got the Picture Slot yesterday, it is only fair Persis Khambatta gets it today. Of all the writers, I remember we had some of Willy Ley's non-fiction about rockets in the house when I was a kid.

Many happy returns of the day to all the living on the list.

Prediction: ...[A]lcohol, as a beverage, must inevitably disappear. Not only because the price of intoxicants is an unproductive expenditure (and we shall have to be more and more thrifty as time goes on) but because the nerves of the new age would never stand them, must all alcoholic beverages be regarded as destined to obsolescence: and the legislative aspect of this question must presently be touched upon.

I think it quite likely that when alcohol is gone, the nerves of the future may find it necessary to place the sale of tea and of coffee under restrictions similar to those at present inflicted upon the trade in alcohol…

Predictor: T. Baron Russell in A Hundred Years Hence, published 1905


Reality: Hey, buddy, I gotcher future nerves right here. A lot of futurists from this era think alcohol will be frowned upon in the bright, shining age to come,  but I haven't run across many who think coffee and tea need to be controlled. As for thrift, I'm personally happy to do without a car, cable TV and a cell phone, but my budget definitely has room for some wine and India pale ale.

Looking one day ahead.... INTO THE FUTURE!

Yet another prediction from H.G. Wells about the 20th Century, bleak but not entirely wrong.


Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!

1 October 2013

Birthdays
Stephen Collins b. 1947 (Star Trek: The Motion Picture)
Richard Corben b. 1940 (Illustrator)
Richard Harris b. 1930 died 10/25/2002 (Harry Potter)

A short list of birthdays today, but we get both a Star Trek and a Harry Potter hit. No disrespect to Mr. Collins, but when I saw the first Star Trek, I knew the new characters were just going to be in the way, no matter how pretty they were.

Many happy returns to Mr. Collins and Mr. Corben, and may Richard Harris never be forgotten.

Predictor: Isaac Asimov, predicting life in 2014 as part of the 1964 World's Fair in New York

Prediction: There is an underground house at the fair which is a sign of the future. if its windows are not polarized, they can nevertheless alter the "scenery" by changes in lighting.

Suburban houses underground, with easily controlled temperature, free from the vicissitudes of weather, with air cleaned and light controlled, should be fairly common. At the New York World's Fair of 2014, General Motors' "Futurama" may well display vistas of underground cities complete with light- forced vegetable gardens. The surface, G.M. will argue, will be given over to large-scale agriculture, grazing and parklands, with less space wasted on actual human occupancy.

Reality: Subterranean suburbia is not the world we live in. Here in California, it's something of a rarity for new housing structures to even have basements.

The fear of overpopulation was a major sci-fi theme in the mid 20th Century. When we had three billion people on earth, even trying to think about seven billion felt overwhelming. Now we are over seven billion and if you are the sort of person who has time to read a silly science fiction blog each day (and thank you for doing so), our fears of overcrowding and deprivation haven't come true. In the United States and other developed nations, we made decisions such that our air and water quality are somewhat better than they were in the 1960s.

But we are the species that burns the world to stay warm, and in the 20th Century, we became so clever that we could burn the world to stay cool as well. The billions of more people are not faced with mass starvation as a constant threat, but instead the most scientifically plausible problem we face today is that we are changing the climate with our addiction to petroleum.

Maybe our worst fears for the future will not be as bad as we think. I certainly hope that's the case. But among the reasons that a planet with seven billion people is not a Soylent Green hellhole is that politicians from across the ideological spectrum came together to clean the environment. In the United States, that's not possible with the new version of the Republican Party, a weird mutant mixture of avarice and intolerance and fear, with each of those character flaws seen as the highest virtues.

This month's splash illustration

Every month, I change the small picture at the top of the blog. This month I took a slice of the atomic blimp picture from the 1956 Mechanix Illustrated that I used as a prediction back in August.

Looking one day ahead... INTO THE FUTURE!

Wednesday means more predictions from T. Baron Russell.

Join us then... IN THE FUTURE!